The Next Hit at the Grocery Store

[HunterDave]

As if consumers weren't getting hit hard enough with the cost of groceries! Now it's PORK!

I caught the tail end of a news story last night that was reporting on an anticipated drastic increase in pork products. Apparently, there is a flu breakout on farms in China that is decimating the hog population. Experts reported that this will not be a short term problem and it could be years before it is sorted out.

You've been warned. Get your bacon!

[amosfella]

Cattle are in the same boat at this point.

[Jack Hardin]

It's all Trudeau's fault. (Can't blame Notley anymore)

[Dean2]

If we were smart we would find alternate markets for all our agriculture products and let the Chinese work out their own problems. They show no loyalty to us for supplying top quality products for years so maybe it is time we ditched these guys as clients. I think we should apply this to ALL exports to China.

[hillbillyreefer]

The ASF virus was identified in the 1950s. It’s been around forever.
It’s been in play across Asia and Europe and few outbreaks in Africa since 2017.
The Chinese have only culled a couple hundred thousand out of a herd of about 425million.
Good biosecurity protocols mitigate the dangers of any disease spread through the worlds major herds. (The things that PETA hates, biosecured facilities)
There are lots of empty hog facilities in NA, prices have been too low for too long so they have been shuttered. The facilities are still there, all they need is some breeding stock Ramping up production in the hog market doesn’t take long. One newborn gilt should provide about 20 slaughter weight hogs in a little over a year. Check out the price increases followed by the crash in the late 90s early 2000s for a good example of that.

In free markets producers will react to signals the same as any other product.

More fear mongering courtesy the MSM.

That being said everyday is a good day to stock up on bacon.

[Stinky Buffalo]

Originally Posted by hillbillyreefer

That being said everyday is a good day to stock up on bacon.

Well said, Sir. I will take your words to heart!

[hillbillyreefer]

Originally Posted by Dean2

If we were smart we would find alternate markets for all our agriculture products and let the Chinese work out their own problems. They show no loyalty to us for supplying top quality products for years so maybe it is time we ditched these guys as clients. I think we should apply this to ALL exports to China.

What? That’s ridiculous. Why would anyone shutoff exports to the largest marketplace on the planet. What markets would we export too? About all that would happen is country1 would ship to China instead of country 2, then we would ship to country2 instead of China. As the highest bidder gets the commodity we’d take less for our products, not the best plan I’ve heard today.
Check out the Trudeau canola catastrophe for a good example of this happening.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by hillbillyreefer

What? That’s ridiculous. Why would anyone shutoff exports to the largest marketplace on the planet. What markets would we export too? About all that would happen is country1 would ship to China instead of country 2, then we would ship to country2 instead of China. As the highest bidder gets the commodity we’d take less for our products, not the best plan I’ve heard today.
Check out the Trudeau canola catastrophe for a good example of this happening.

For the same reason businesses are smart not to sell to Walmart. Once they account for 80-90% of your production they can set the price and you have no option but to take it. Walmart has bankrupted a lot of companies over the years with these tactics. If you let others sell to Walmart, diversify your sales across a bunch of other customers, even though it is more work to maintain many relationships, you actually end up getting a higher price and you aren't hostage to one that can now dictate your prices to you.

The one thing Trump really got right was taking on the Chinese now, before even the U.S. is unable to fight back against their predatory business practices. A BIG market is not the whole answer, it must also be a market where you can fairly trade with a reasonable level of equality in the relationship. Do you really think our Canola producers would be this badly off if nearly all of our production wasn't being sold to China.

[Bigwoodsman]

Originally Posted by Dean2

For the same reason businesses are smart not to sell to Walmart. Once they account for 80-90% of your production they can set the price and you have no option but to take it. Walmart has bankrupted a lot of companies over the years with these tactics. If you let others sell to Walmart, diversify your sales across a bunch of other customers, even though it is more work to maintain many relationships, you actually end up getting a higher price and you aren't hostage to one that can now dictate your prices to you.

The one thing Trump really got right was taking on the Chinese now, before even the U.S. is unable to fight back against their predatory business practices. A BIG market is not the whole answer, it must also be a market where you can fairly trade with a reasonable level of equality in the relationship. Do you really think our Canola producers would be this badly off if nearly all of our production wasn't being sold to China.

^^^^THIS^^^^

To bad we didn't have a Federal Government who understood this basic business practice!

The Feds will send them pork at the expense of Canadians, and will ask them to pretty please take our Canola.

October can't come fast enough!

BW

[pitw]

Put two hogs in the freezer a couple weeks ago. Made ham and bacon as well. Total cost was a few hours of labor and some feed. There are ways to not pay retail and have a better product.

[260 Rem]

Originally Posted by hillbillyreefer

What? That’s ridiculous. Why would anyone shutoff exports to the largest marketplace on the planet. What markets would we export too? About all that would happen is country1 would ship to China instead of country 2, then we would ship to country2 instead of China. As the highest bidder gets the commodity we’d take less for our products, not the best plan I’ve heard today.
Check out the Trudeau canola catastrophe for a good example of this happening.

I need some school’n regarding how the canola/pork stuff is related to any government. I thought farmers could grow/produce what they wanted and sell to whom they wanted... and.... buyers could purchase from whom they wanted. So, how is the government involved? For example, if I was a canola grower I could choose to whom I sold my seeds ... and I chose Cargill who in turn sold the product to a company in China. So when the Chinese company decides not to purchase from Cargill, who in turn decides not to purchase from me ... where does the “blame” lie? Can someone explain how this ends up on the governments desk. I don’t want the government in my business! What am I missing?

[hillbillyreefer]

Originally Posted by 260 Rem

I need some school’n regarding how the canola/pork stuff is related to any government. I thought farmers could grow/produce what they wanted and sell to whom they wanted... and.... buyers could purchase from whom they wanted. So, how is the government involved? For example, if I was a canola grower I could choose to whom I sold my seeds ... and I chose Cargill who in turn sold the product to a company in China. So when the Chinese company decides not to purchase from Cargill, who in turn decides not to purchase from me ... where does the “blame” lie? Can someone explain how this ends up on the governments desk. I don’t want the government in my business! What am I missing?

The canola thing is retaliation for us grabbing the Huawei chick and holding her for extradition to the US.

[260 Rem]

Originally Posted by hillbillyreefer

The canola thing is retaliation for us grabbing the Huawei chick and holding her for extradition to the US.

I assume no level of Cdn government was involved in the arrest ... certainly would be “un-Canadian” if they were. I wouldn't want government to order the arrest or release of anybody. That’s the kind of thing that happens in dictatorships, maybe communist...but not in our democracy !!!

[hillbillyreefer]

Originally Posted by Dean2

For the same reason businesses are smart not to sell to Walmart. Once they account for 80-90% of your production they can set the price and you have no option but to take it. Walmart has bankrupted a lot of companies over the years with these tactics. If you let others sell to Walmart, diversify your sales across a bunch of other customers, even though it is more work to maintain many relationships, you actually end up getting a higher price and you aren't hostage to one that can now dictate your prices to you.

The one thing Trump really got right was taking on the Chinese now, before even the U.S. is unable to fight back against their predatory business practices. A BIG market is not the whole answer, it must also be a market where you can fairly trade with a reasonable level of equality in the relationship. Do you really think our Canola producers would be this badly off if nearly all of our production wasn't being sold to China.

Lots of countries export canola. Lots of countries import canola. We sell to the highest bidder until politics interfere which is what is happening right now. Canola has lost a $1 a bushel in the last month or so because demand isn’t there for us right now with the Chinese ban on Canadian imports. China isn’t just the biggest buyer they are also about the closest buyer, making it a lucrative market due to shipping differentials in our favor.

That $1/bushel is almost $900,000,000 directly out of Canadian farmers pockets. There are real consequences to losing that kind of money to every citizen in Canada. But like the energy industry who cares? Budgets balance themselves, sunny ways, and where is my pogey check.

[hillbillyreefer]

Originally Posted by 260 Rem

I assume no level of Cdn government was involved in the arrest ... certainly would be “un-Canadian” if they were. I wouldn't want government to order the arrest or release of anybody. That’s the kind of thing that happens in dictatorships, maybe communist...but not in our democracy !!!

I can’t tell if that’s sarcasm or something else.

[jcrayford]

Originally Posted by Bigwoodsman

^^^^THIS^^^^

To bad we didn't have a Federal Government who HAD A SPINE!!!

The Feds will send them pork at the expense of Canadians, and will ask them to pretty please take our Canola (ON OUR KNEES).

October can't come fast enough! (AGREED!)

BW

^fixed it for you BW....

J.

[pikergolf]

Originally Posted by Dean2

If we were smart we would find alternate markets for all our agriculture products and let the Chinese work out their own problems. They show no loyalty to us for supplying top quality products for years so maybe it is time we ditched these guys as clients. I think we should apply this to ALL exports to China.

X2 screw em.

[Ken07AOVette]

They won't take canola why should we give them pork?

That is one meat I do not care if I never eat again.

[260 Rem]

Originally Posted by hillbillyreefer

I can’t tell if that’s sarcasm or something else.

No sarcasm ... point is that our government (regardless of political stripe) is not responsible for selling canola or pork to China. Nor does our government (regardless of political stripe) direct the arrest of people. For that I am thankful. To suggest that “the government” screwed up canola/pork sales or is responsible is not based in fact.

[ETOWNCANUCK]

[vcmm]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

They won't take canola why should we give them pork?

That is one meat I do not care if I never eat again.

Where's the fridge?? Say it isn't so!! A world without pork isn't worth it.

[barbless]

Do we not have enough hog farmers between Alberta, Sask., and Manitoba to keep us in the good between the 3 of us. B.C. don't need it they're into eating weeds and the products of. They are closer to China so they can pay the high price for export and. Cost too much to bring it over the mountains to us. Out East, well all those TRUE'DOPE believers can eat beavers or fish. Except the Newfie's of course. ALBERTA BEEF and PORK

[pa_of_6]

As long as folks can buy a 100,000$ pick up truck... they are not paying enough for food


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ETOWNCANUCK]

Originally Posted by pa_of_6

As long as folks can buy a 100,000$ pick up truck... they are not paying enough for food


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

As long as banks are willing to give out 8 year loans.
Soon It'll be over 25 years like a mortgage.

Like buying a $30,000 camping trailer.

Keep the fools in debt with low payments and high interests.

[pikergolf]

Originally Posted by HunterDave

As if consumers weren't getting hit hard enough with the cost of groceries! Now it's PORK!

I caught the tail end of a news story last night that was reporting on an anticipated drastic increase in pork products. Apparently, there is a flu breakout on farms in China that is decimating the hog population. Experts reported that this will not be a short term problem and it could be years before it is sorted out.

You've been warned. Get your bacon!

I don't think so Tim, they don't want our pork either. Hard to say where this is going to end up.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bib...orts-1.5119333

[huntinstuff]

Originally Posted by 260 rem

i assume no level of cdn government was involved in the arrest ... Certainly would be “un-canadian” if they were. I wouldn't want government to order the arrest or release of anybody. That’s the kind of thing that happens in dictatorships, maybe communist...but not in our democracy !!!

rcmp

[hillbillyreefer]

No worries now, China revoked the import permits for 2 Quebec based pork companies this afternoon. They must not be that short on pork.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by hillbillyreefer

Lots of countries export canola. Lots of countries import canola. We sell to the highest bidder until politics interfere which is what is happening right now. Canola has lost a $1 a bushel in the last month or so because demand isn’t there for us right now with the Chinese ban on Canadian imports. China isn’t just the biggest buyer they are also about the closest buyer, making it a lucrative market due to shipping differentials in our favor.

That $1/bushel is almost $900,000,000 directly out of Canadian farmers pockets. There are real consequences to losing that kind of money to every citizen in Canada. But like the energy industry who cares? Budgets balance themselves, sunny ways, and where is my pogey check.

Don't disagree with you about Sparklesock's economics but aside from that, you are making up numbers and talking out your own armpit. Canada exports $11 billion plus of Canola a year. China buys about 2.5 billion of that and is a major market but it is also the reason we have far more acreage in Canola than we should have. If $1 a bushel really made a $900,000,000 difference it means we are selling them Canola for about $2.78 a bushel. Pretty sure I can find lots of places that will take it for that price.

Believe whatever you want but NOT selling anything to China, and not buying crap from them, will in the long run turn out to be a much better idea than doing business with them under their current political structure.

I'm out of here thanks.

[hillbillyreefer]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Don't disagree with you about Sparklesock's economics but aside from that, you are making up numbers and talking out your own armpit. Canada exports $11 billion plus of Canola a year. China buys about 2.5 billion of that and is a major market but it is also the reason we have far more acreage in Canola than we should have. If $1 a bushel really made a $900,000,000 difference it means we are selling them Canola for about $2.78 a bushel. Pretty sure I can find lots of places that will take it for that price.

Believe whatever you want but NOT selling anything to China, and not buying crap from them, will in the long run turn out to be a much better idea than doing business with them under their current political structure.

I'm out of here thanks.

We grow about 22million metric tones.
22,000,000 x 44.09 bu/tonne= 969,980,000 bushels.
Really simple math says that a loss of $1 a bushel costs Canadian producers $969,980,000/yr. And the price dropped another dime a bushel yesterday.
But what the heck adding another $billion onto the losses the Canadian economy has already lost is just chump change. Sunny ways.

[Purple Farmer]

Originally Posted by 260 Rem

No sarcasm ... point is that our government (regardless of political stripe) is not responsible for selling canola or pork to China. Nor does our government (regardless of political stripe) direct the arrest of people. For that I am thankful. To suggest that “the government” screwed up canola/pork sales or is responsible is not based in fact.

You are joking, right?