Ukraine is taking the war to Russian territory

[fishnguy]

The rest was discussed ad nauseam, so I am not going to again. And I am definitely not going to pick a statue to research and discuss, lol (which had also been done previously and I provided numerous links, including research papers from Holocaust Museum, etc). The names of many “heroes” are well known as are the feelings about their “heroism”, especially to the experts in this thread, haha. I am also, more importantly, not here to prove anything to you or anyone else.

Will only address the two points below.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

if you don’t like Zelenskyy it’s easy to say it’s a script. Fact is he said it. It’s searchable. He was being hunted by Russian assassins and stayed put. Very courageous in anyone’s books.

Is it a fact though? Is it searchable? What is searchable? That Biden said he asked and that’s what he was told? What exactly is factual about it? I can provide examples of dozens of “facts” that we know now for a fact didn't happen, likely didn’t happen, and so on.

As for the “Russian assassins”, there is nothing factual about it either. Why do you think Kiev is still intact, including, and in particular, the Bankova Street? Also, have you seen any videos of Russian drones following Zelensky’s entourage? The last one that I saw was in Odessa, when he was on the way to meet the Greek prime minister, if I recall correctly. There was even a importantly in the Ukrainian “internet segment” about why they didn’t smack him, but instead bombed the part of the port a couple kilometres away.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Its well know Putin has body doubles. He also uses the same people over and over again in state videos. People he feels safe around. He’s also scared of germs and is rarely seen near average folks.

Is it well-known though? Perhaps this is also factual?

What people is he supposed to use in “state videos” if it is the same people holding the same positions in the government and the security apparatus? Now that his government somewhat changed after the election, I am assuming there are different people in his “state videos” (I haven’t watched any, so cannot provide further context).

Is he scared of germs though? Is that also factual and “searchable”?

Anyway….

Sundance, listen to this podcast episode of a smart man (Galleotti I mentioned above). For real. This is no propaganda, or anything, and is free. You can look the guy up yourself, he is pretty searchable, lol. I listen to his podcast on the regular basis, but only caught up on that episode yesterday (one more to listen to too) due to the lack of time. He talks about the Kursk incursion in this episode, conscripts that you wanted to know about, and, at the end, just his general thoughts that I would strongly recommend for you to listen to. It’s only 40 minutes, so while cooking or whatever…

https://inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout....ursk-incursion

Let me know what you think.

[W921]

How does the war effect price Russia gets for energy exports? Example natural gas exports to Europe?
Is so called free world getting any benefit from war in the source of cheaper energy? Wouldn't this effect prices worldwide?

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by W921

How does the war effect price Russia gets for energy exports? Example natural gas exports to Europe?
Is so called free world getting any benefit from war in the source of cheaper energy? Wouldn't this effect prices worldwide?

You bet it has effected oil prices. The moment the conflict ends, and Russia can flood the market, oil prices will drop like a stone.
Quote;
Through the event analysis method based on VMD decomposition, it was found that the Russia–Ukraine war resulted in a $37.14 increase in WTI crude oil prices, reaching 52.33%, and a $41.49 increase in Brent crude oil prices, reaching 56.33%.Jan 2, 2024

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

The rest was discussed ad nauseam, so I am not going to again. And I am definitely not going to pick a statue to research and discuss, lol (which had also been done previously and I provided numerous links, including research papers from Holocaust Museum, etc). The names of many “heroes” are well known as are the feelings about their “heroism”, especially to the experts in this thread, haha. I am also, more importantly, not here to prove anything to you or anyone else.

Will only address the two points below.


Is it a fact though? Is it searchable? What is searchable? That Biden said he asked and that’s what he was told? What exactly is factual about it? I can provide examples of dozens of “facts” that we know now for a fact didn't happen, likely didn’t happen, and so on.

As for the “Russian assassins”, there is nothing factual about it either. Why do you think Kiev is still intact, including, and in particular, the Bankova Street? Also, have you seen any videos of Russian drones following Zelensky’s entourage? The last one that I saw was in Odessa, when he was on the way to meet the Greek prime minister, if I recall correctly. There was even a importantly in the Ukrainian “internet segment” about why they didn’t smack him, but instead bombed the part of the port a couple kilometres away.


Is it well-known though? Perhaps this is also factual?

What people is he supposed to use in “state videos” if it is the same people holding the same positions in the government and the security apparatus? Now that his government somewhat changed after the election, I am assuming there are different people in his “state videos” (I haven’t watched any, so cannot provide further context).

Is he scared of germs though? Is that also factual and “searchable”?

Anyway….

Sundance, listen to this podcast episode of a smart man (Galleotti I mentioned above). For real. This is no propaganda, or anything, and is free. You can look the guy up yourself, he is pretty searchable, lol. I listen to his podcast on the regular basis, but only caught up on that episode yesterday (one more to listen to too) due to the lack of time. He talks about the Kursk incursion in this episode, conscripts that you wanted to know about, and, at the end, just his general thoughts that I would strongly recommend for you to listen to. It’s only 40 minutes, so while cooking or whatever…

https://inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout....ursk-incursion

Let me know what you think.

Did you watch my video link? Doesn’t seem so.

As for Zelenskyy. https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/europ...ntl/index.html Now you will say it’s fake new or made up however just for a moment… realize he could of left the country but he didn’t. He asked for weapons and the fact is he is still there.

As for assassination attempts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assass...ree%20attempts. It’s very obvious Russia wants him dead. He a hero to Ukrainians for staying put and directing the defence and now offence against Russia’s illegal war.

Now you will say you don’t believe it… however you believe your sources. Back to confirmation bias. In this instance… it makes sense that Putin would want to assassinate Zelenskyy.

We also see the fact Zelenskyy stayed put and has helped the country embarrass Putin’s third rate army.

War sucks but what many forget is losing your freedoms suck far far worse. I still shake my head at some who champion Russia and want Ukraine to surrender and while here in Canada cry about Trudeau being PM. Only thing that makes sense is that some of those people screaming so much for Ukraine to lose have to be secret Trudeau supporters. Supporting loss of freedoms is craziness.

I do suspect on many points we are in agreement.

Both want Ukraine to win. Both hates war. Both love freedoms. Both believe freedoms are worth fighting for. Both believe the war has gone on too long. Both want the west to send all weapons and take off restrictions and let Ukraine fight as hard as they can with new technology.

[ruffy71]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

The rest was discussed ad nauseam, so I am not going to again. And I am definitely not going to pick a statue to research and discuss, lol (which had also been done previously and I provided numerous links, including research papers from Holocaust Museum, etc). The names of many “heroes” are well known as are the feelings about their “heroism”, especially to the experts in this thread, haha. I am also, more importantly, not here to prove anything to you or anyone else.

Will only address the two points below.


Is it a fact though? Is it searchable? What is searchable? That Biden said he asked and that’s what he was told? What exactly is factual about it? I can provide examples of dozens of “facts” that we know now for a fact didn't happen, likely didn’t happen, and so on.

As for the “Russian assassins”, there is nothing factual about it either. Why do you think Kiev is still intact, including, and in particular, the Bankova Street? Also, have you seen any videos of Russian drones following Zelensky’s entourage? The last one that I saw was in Odessa, when he was on the way to meet the Greek prime minister, if I recall correctly. There was even a importantly in the Ukrainian “internet segment” about why they didn’t smack him, but instead bombed the part of the port a couple kilometres away.


Is it well-known though? Perhaps this is also factual?

What people is he supposed to use in “state videos” if it is the same people holding the same positions in the government and the security apparatus? Now that his government somewhat changed after the election, I am assuming there are different people in his “state videos” (I haven’t watched any, so cannot provide further context).

Is he scared of germs though? Is that also factual and “searchable”?

Anyway….

Sundance, listen to this podcast episode of a smart man (Galleotti I mentioned above). For real. This is no propaganda, or anything, and is free. You can look the guy up yourself, he is pretty searchable, lol. I listen to his podcast on the regular basis, but only caught up on that episode yesterday (one more to listen to too) due to the lack of time. He talks about the Kursk incursion in this episode, conscripts that you wanted to know about, and, at the end, just his general thoughts that I would strongly recommend for you to listen to. It’s only 40 minutes, so while cooking or whatever…

https://inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout....ursk-incursion

Let me know what you think.

Everything, including your statement about this being ad nauseum, has reached ad nauseum status. Everybody has their expert, their friend, their friend of a friend.

None of that matters, it's just the basic question of which side you are on. And for every, EVERY, single reason you could make against Ukraine, the exact same arguments can be made against Russia, but all are 10 fold, or more.

It is that simple.

[W921]

When the war started everyone say on TV news or Facebook was all behind Ukraine. Honestly I didn't care but I don't like Russian Putin. Now it seems like same public has lost interest. I'm more interested now than ever because I'm amazed at how good Ukraine is doing.
Haha When covid started I trusted the government. Got vaccinations, was against trucker convoy at coutts. I actually tried to discourage my son from going to coutts. I thought it was wrong.
Now my son and public forget or don't care and I don't even vaccinate my cattle like I used to.

[32-40win]

Certainly no shortage of think tank analysis on all sides around to view, people I'd never heard of, more out there yet. Lots of good ones, from a grunt's view to a general's view, supporting staff and industries old and brand new, never seen before stuff in use, showing results. Old stuff from as far back as WW2 becoming useful again, some moreso than the new wave of super high tech stuff, some of the high tech stuff being brought into serious question as to its practicality vs cost.
It's a lot to absorb and sort out in any person's l'il pea brain. But, I've been interested in it since I was a little rat, so, I keep learning about it. Lot has changed, many things remain the same as they were 2-3000 yrs ago, in war and politically.

[32-40win]

Some wild stuff as a result of a couple of strikes, one on RU, one on Ukes, and a look at rU rail problems due to Kursk;
Rail issues;
https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1826332552023441802

Chem clouds floating around Ternopil and Lviv, Chlorine and Hydrochloric acid
https://x.com/UaBabel/status/1826232785197297724

And the oil storage fire near Rostov;
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1826171767037059074

And maybe another incursion into RU, in Bryansk area ? Talk this AM of something going on in Zaporizhia area too, hurry up and wait and see;

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1826328332700729442

Some thought on RU logistics problems in the Kursk area and the river crossings;

https://x.com/Havoc_Six/status/1826247434428719389

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Did you watch my video link? Doesn’t seem so.

Which? At the end of your post where the description says “he explains it well”? No, I didn’t. I never click youtube links when I don't know what they are. I would rather know who the author is prior. It’s a no go otherwise.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

As for Zelenskyy. https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/europ...ntl/index.html Now you will say it’s fake new or made up however just for a moment… realize he could of left the country but he didn’t. He asked for weapons and the fact is he is still there.

Have you ever seen me saying “fake news” without referencing someone else?

No the news isn’t fake. They reported what happened and what happened was that they were told he said that. Whether he did or not is another issue, which is neither factual, nor searchable.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

As for assassination attempts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assass...ree%20attempts. It’s very obvious Russia wants him dead. He a hero to Ukrainians for staying put and directing the defence and now offence against Russia’s illegal war.

Don’t need wiki links. I am fairly confident I read more on the subject of this conflict than 99%. I believe “Ukrainian government officials” exactly as much as I do the “Russian government officials”, no more no less.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Now you will say you don’t believe it… however you believe your sources.

I never said I believe “my sources”. I just think some are reasonable and some aren’t. Is there bias? Sure, I am no exception. However, I refer to various sources, regardless of whether I agree with them or not. This has nothing to do with believing. For example, Galleotti. I don’t agree with him on some/many subjects, but strongly believe he is worth listening to and I don’t think there is a public figure (meaning publicly available for comment and opinion sharing) out there today that has a better expertise on the Russian state of affairs and Russian society. I have zero interest in propaganda, one way or the other. Many (absolute majority of) analysts have no clue about Russians and completely lack understanding of how things work, which is very obvious to those who know at least a bit. This includes very prominent people that are referenced all the time everywhere. Mark brings light on many topics that no one cares to look at and has actual expertise to share. So again, this has nothing to with blind believes. I have no such tendencies. Any opinion should be well-reasoned and supported by facts. Otherwise it is a waste of time.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Back to confirmation bias.

You keep posting links that line up with your opinion only. I haven’t seen you say “look, here is a different perspective” or something of that nature.

This war is completely bananas from almost any perspective. But from the amount of participation of regular folk on various social media is even more so. The worst, of course, is the amount of videos posted and people cheering at these videos, where soldiers are being torn to pieces, burning alive, otherwise going through an unimaginable amount of suffering, be it Russian or Ukrainian soldiers, it doesn’t matter. This conflict took it to a whole new level. Then the amount of propaganda floating around is just crazy. The number of “experts” is just as. People keep reading and posting rubbish then come in complete shock when things aren’t what they thought they were and refuse to believe in reality, accuse everyone who does of being a Russian supporter or propagandist, etc. They tell people with knowledge to stf, call them names, etc, further reducing their “range of sources” and increasing the volume of their echo chamber. People straight up refuse to believe what’s obvious and real. They “fight” trying to prove something until their noses bleed, even though they have no or very little clue of what they are talking about, but somehow they know they are right. Anyway…

So did you listen to the podcast I suggested? If yes, what do you think?

Originally Posted by ruffy71

Everything, including your statement about this being ad nauseum, has reached ad nauseum status. Everybody has their expert, their friend, their friend of a friend.

None of that matters, it's just the basic question of which side you are on. And for every, EVERY, single reason you could make against Ukraine, the exact same arguments can be made against Russia, but all are 10 fold, or more.

It is that simple.

Completely disagree. I don’t even see the relevance of “which side who is on”. And none of it is that simple at all. People can also be on the same side, but have completely different ideas of what is going on and how to solve it, etc.

The “every, EVERY, single reason you can make against Ukraine, the exact same arguments can be made against Russia, but all are 10 fold, or more” is likely an invalid argument. Also, sometimes, tenfold of one makes no difference.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

Which? At the end of your post where the description says “he explains it well”? No, I didn’t. I never click youtube links when I don't know what they are. I would rather know who the author is prior. It’s a no go otherwise.


Have you ever seen me saying “fake news” without referencing someone else?

No the news isn’t fake. They reported what happened and what happened was that they were told he said that. Whether he did or not is another issue, which is neither factual, nor searchable.


Don’t need wiki links. I am fairly confident I read more on the subject of this conflict than 99%. I believe “Ukrainian government officials” exactly as much as I do the “Russian government officials”, no more no less.



I never said I believe “my sources”. I just think some are reasonable and some aren’t. Is there bias? Sure, I am no exception. However, I refer to various sources, regardless of whether I agree with them or not. This has nothing to do with believing. For example, Galleotti. I don’t agree with him on some/many subjects, but strongly believe he is worth listening to and I don’t think there is a public figure (meaning publicly available for comment and opinion sharing) out there today that has a better expertise on the Russian state of affairs and Russian society. I have zero interest in propaganda, one way or the other. Many (absolute majority of) analysts have no clue about Russians and completely lack understanding of how things work, which is very obvious to those who know at least a bit. This includes very prominent people that are referenced all the time everywhere. Mark brings light on many topics that no one cares to look at and has actual expertise to share. So again, this has nothing to with blind believes. I have no such tendencies. Any opinion should be well-reasoned and supported by facts. Otherwise it is a waste of time.


You keep posting links that line up with your opinion only. I haven’t seen you say “look, here is a different perspective” or something of that nature.

This war is completely bananas from almost any perspective. But from the amount of participation of regular folk on various social media is even more so. The worst, of course, is the amount of videos posted and people cheering at these videos, where soldiers are being torn to pieces, burning alive, otherwise going through an unimaginable amount of suffering, be it Russian or Ukrainian soldiers, it doesn’t matter. This conflict took it to a whole new level. Then the amount of propaganda floating around is just crazy. The number of “experts” is just as. People keep reading and posting rubbish then come in complete shock when things aren’t what they thought they were and refuse to believe in reality, accuse everyone who does of being a Russian supporter or propagandist, etc. They tell people with knowledge to stf, call them names, etc, further reducing their “range of sources” and increasing the volume of their echo chamber. People straight up refuse to believe what’s obvious and real. They “fight” trying to prove something until their noses bleed, even though they have no or very little clue of what they are talking about, but somehow they know they are right. Anyway…

So did you listen to the podcast I suggested? If yes, what do you think?


Completely disagree. I don’t even see the relevance of “which side who is on”. And none of it is that simple at all. People can also be on the same side, but have completely different ideas of what is going on and how to solve it, etc.

The “every, EVERY, single reason you can make against Ukraine, the exact same arguments can be made against Russia, but all are 10 fold, or more” is likely an invalid argument. Also, sometimes, tenfold of one makes no difference.

lol

But you want others to click your links.

Enough said. You are only looking at what you want to look at. Confirmation bias is a strong force for sure.

The video link I sent is from a Ukrainian source but he’s very fair with regards to risk and what’s happening and what is backed up by more than heresay.

You should take a look… I like it because it is balanced in regards to strategy and operations on the front lines.

[BuckCuller]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

lol

But you want others to click your links.

Enough said. You are only looking at what you want to look at. Confirmation bias is a strong force for sure.

The video link I sent is from a Ukrainian source but he’s very fair with regards to risk and what’s happening and what is backed up by more than heresay.

You should take a look… I like it because it is balanced in regards to strategy and operations on the front lines.

Just a question.
Did you make a second profile so you can argue with yourself or did you finally meet your twin that you have been separated from at birth?

[fishnguy]

Lol indeed, Sun. I told you exactly who I am referring you to (not “a British source”) and the subject of discussion, even specifics, and why. Alas…

The “fair Ukrainian sources” are a dime a dozen all over the net. Tell me anything about the author and why he is different from the rest of the clickbait and waste of time. Is there any value added in his “analysis”? Like I said, a name would help. Otherwise, I am not interested. I understand that it is probably a rando on the internet and you don’t have a name or know anything about the person. Then tell me, why is his analysis different from any other rando? I think I said a few posts ago that I have no interest in such. I thought I was pretty clear and wrote on the subject quite extensively. Add to that, as I said in the previous post, you provide no content that deviates from your (desired) viewpoint; moreover, say that the articles you provide are “even better”, though dated and don’t necessarily have much to do with the current happenings (that is, the subject of the thread you created).

Here is a recommended read: Ukraine Defies the U.S. to Launch a Showy Offensive Into Russia

Another recommended (short) read about the capabilities and challenges of providing logistics by Ukraine in Kursk: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...579709735.html

The same dude discussing why the Russian defences in Kursk failed: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...252455757.html

Here is an article in the Ukrainian Pravda (!) about the offensive with some interesting facts, as reported. There is quite a bit of rubbish in it (could one expect differently?), but it is an interesting read nonetheless: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articl...08/14/7470441/

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by BuckCuller

Just a question.
Did you make a second profile so you can argue with yourself or did you finally meet your twin that you have been separated from at birth?

I am afraid neither. I am me and he is a bit older to be my twin separated at birth.

[BuckCuller]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

I am afraid neither. I am me and he is a bit older to be my twin separated at birth.

LOL I think you are irritating him a bit. He is used to being the most vocal.

[fishnguy]

Here is some fun.

Fans cheering on and agreeing with everything that is said by the (same) poster and “hell yeah!” type of attitude in general. Then time passes, the situation changes dramatically, fans do not understand what gives because what they are still hearing is farts and rainbows from their desired “legit” sources and:







This one deserves a drum roll:



These are sample responses to Rob Lee’s posts. Rob Lee: https://staging.fpri.org/contributor/rob-lee/ and his Twitter: https://x.com/RALee85?ref_src=twsrc%...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Someone may recognize themselves there somewhere.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by BuckCuller

Just a question.
Did you make a second profile so you can argue with yourself or did you finally meet your twin that you have been separated from at birth?

lol. Now that’s funny.

Ukraine matters has another good update. All the current details of fighting plus the risk and rewards seen on the battlefield. It’s never all rosy glasses as he does point out bad things also.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=krLPsj-Jhyk

[Drewski Canuck]

Originally Posted by Scott h

You bet it has effected oil prices. The moment the conflict ends, and Russia can flood the market, oil prices will drop like a stone.
Quote;
Through the event analysis method based on VMD decomposition, it was found that the Russia–Ukraine war resulted in a $37.14 increase in WTI crude oil prices, reaching 52.33%, and a $41.49 increase in Brent crude oil prices, reaching 56.33%.Jan 2, 2024

Welllll, you have it a little bit backwards.

With all the sanctions from the West, Russia has been dumping oil at discount to India and China, who are huge consumers. Some indication is a $30 US Discount.

If India and China can load up on cheap Russian Oil, I suppose they could sell stuff to Russia that it cannot access in the West now.

This side deal is drying up two big consumers who do not need to go to the World Market to buy oil.

That is why the Price of Oil is currently supressed. It will go back up once India and China start buying again on the World Market.

Drewski

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Welllll, you have it a little bit backwards.

With all the sanctions from the West, Russia has been dumping oil at discount to India and China, who are huge consumers. Some indication is a $30 US Discount.

If India and China can load up on cheap Russian Oil, I suppose they could sell stuff to Russia that it cannot access in the West now.

This side deal is drying up two big consumers who do not need to go to the World Market to buy oil.

That is why the Price of Oil is currently supressed. It will go back up once India and China start buying again on the World Market.

Drewski

I thought as part of the sanctions that the west imposed including selling the Russian oil at a discount. That discount is specific to their oil. They are also a part of the greater OPEC price and output controls.

Currently the price seems to be suppressed because the Chinese economy is down and the US recession fears and shale oil production in the US.

My question is why is the oil sands production differential still so wide since the new pipeline went on? I don’t think there is a connection there to Russia’s illegal war on Ukraine.

[HyperMOA]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

I thought as part of the sanctions that the west imposed including selling the Russian oil at a discount. That discount is specific to their oil. They are also a part of the greater OPEC price and output controls.

Currently the price seems to be suppressed because the Chinese economy is down and the US recession fears and shale oil production in the US.

My question is why is the oil sands production differential still so wide since the new pipeline went on? I don’t think there is a connection there to Russia’s illegal war on Ukraine.

I haven’t consulted charts but I watch oil prices and we are usually about a $12 discount now, which is pretty good. They refine it more in Texas too. If we want WTI prices we have to refine it more first.

[Drewski Canuck]

Sundance,

On the Oil Discount on Russian Oil, initially Europe was still buying Russian Oil and Gas. It was a matter of pipelines and dependency.

When the Russian pipelines were destroyed, and Europe had to go elsewhere because of fears of being frozen out in the mid of winter, then Europe said there would be a discount on purchase.

But the Russians had already found new Customers.

The Russians already were hitting roadblocks with technical equipment transfers from Europe for their refinery and pipelines because of the Embargo, but had no problem getting equipment from our allies in India and China (clearly sarcasm!!).

Of course the Europeans saved face with their discount oil story after the fact, and after finding other sources than Russia. But Russia had been discounting to India and China long before, meaning world demand declined as 1/3 of the World's population did not buy Mid East or Western Oil.

Imagine what the price of oil could have been if India and China had bought oil on the World market and not through some backroom deal with Russia.

Drewski

[Drewski Canuck]

Originally Posted by HyperMOA

I haven’t consulted charts but I watch oil prices and we are usually about a $12 discount now, which is pretty good. They refine it more in Texas too. If we want WTI prices we have to refine it more first.

No amount of refining in Alberta will make a difference. The US owned Canadian Heavy Oil producers are selling in the US to the same US owned Companies. They use stories like Canadian Select has more Sulphur and costs more to refine, and smokescreen stories like that.

The truth be known the US Owned Canadian Operations sadly do not make much money in Canada due to the price differential and HAVE to sell at a discount. The Royalties paid in Canada are therefore LESS.

The big Profits made in the Gulf Coast refineries are of course taken in the US.

The price differential has had NOTHING to do with the quality of the Canadian Bitumen oil or who can use it. the price differential has everything to do with where the royalties and taxes are paid and how to avoid the taxes and royalties in Canada.

That is why Ralph Klien as Premier kicked off the Northwest Upgrader and started taking Bitumen Royalty in Kind (BRICK). The profits stay here.

Drewski

[32-40win]

The logistics thread Fishinguy put up from Lovely Lad is real enough, Ukes have same issues as Russians in that regard. Can only cover so much turf before logistics become a problem. Hadn't seen that thread yet, but, so many people with so many threads to watch, can't see them all. Thx for that.
Not an unreasonable assessment from Davidzon either, no idea what Ukes real capabilities are at present, but, suspecting they are pretty much at their limit, and the supplies are certainly questionable. Ukraine and Israel do show how the US influences things, other places show how they seem to be losing influence too. Saw an article on Egypt doing naval exercises with China, SOCOM getting kicked out of central Africa, etc.
US wants to increase industrial capability, see a post today where Timken Steel is building a new bloom furnace for steel to make artillery shells with, but, that's a couple of yrs til finished, then they need the manpower to operate it. That's another issue, they can't get enough manpower to build ships, what else are they short on manpower or means to build and operate?

Whole bunch of stuff to take with a big grain of salt.
One chuckle today was Ukes hacking an RU TV network and running vids on it. The stuff about Putin's doubles has been circulating for a number of yrs now. Some of those are funny.

[Sundancefisher]

Nice. Ukraine attacked a base storing glide bombs.

Looks like the base went kaboom.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...airbase-2024-8

[HyperMOA]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

No amount of refining in Alberta will make a difference. The US owned Canadian Heavy Oil producers are selling in the US to the same US owned Companies. They use stories like Canadian Select has more Sulphur and costs more to refine, and smokescreen stories like that.

The truth be known the US Owned Canadian Operations sadly do not make much money in Canada due to the price differential and HAVE to sell at a discount. The Royalties paid in Canada are therefore LESS.

The big Profits made in the Gulf Coast refineries are of course taken in the US.

The price differential has had NOTHING to do with the quality of the Canadian Bitumen oil or who can use it. the price differential has everything to do with where the royalties and taxes are paid and how to avoid the taxes and royalties in Canada.

That is why Ralph Klien as Premier kicked off the Northwest Upgrader and started taking Bitumen Royalty in Kind (BRICK). The profits stay here.

Drewski

So when we refine here, we make more per barrel?

[Sundancefisher]

https://dailywrap.uk/ukrainian-drone...2578408871553a

Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian military airport, destroys aircraft
Strike on a Russian airbase

21 August 2024 19:06



A Ukrainian kamikaze drone struck the Sawaslejka military airport in the Nizhny Novgorod region of Russia. As a result of the attack, the Russians lost at least three aircraft.

The report was confirmed by a source from military intelligence (HUR) to the portal Ukrainska Pravda. According to the source, the attack destroyed a MiG-31 (variant K or I), two IL-76s, and damaged about five aircraft, probably MiG-31Ks. Currently, there are no video materials or official confirmation of this information.


The previous strike on the Sawaslejka airport was carried out on 13 August; it destroyed a fuel and lubricant depot and damage to a MiG-31K/I aircraft.

According to space intelligence data, at the time of the attack on 13 August, there were 11 MiG-31K/I and IL-76 aircraft and five Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters at the airport.

Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, reminds the X service that the MiG-31K aircraft is capable of carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, which the Russians use to destroy Ukraine's critical infrastructure.

Attack in the Murmansk region
"Ukrainian drones attacked the Murmansk region on Wednesday," reported the region's governor, Andrei Chibis. According to Russian military officers, the drones managed to reach the village of Vysokoye in the northern part of the region, near which the Olenya military airport is located, where strategic bombers Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 are stationed.

"Ukraine attacked the Murmansk region using drones for the first time. This is the longest-range record in the entire war," announced The Moscow Times.


https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world...et/ar-AA1pfke5

August may turn out to be the deadliest month for Russian aviation since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The losses related to MiG-31K fighters are starting to look particularly painful for the invaders. The destruction of these machines is crucial for Ukraine because the takeoff of each one triggers alarms throughout the country.

According to Ukrainian media, citing sources in local military intelligence (HUR), a successful attack on the Savashleika airbase in the Nizhny Novgorod region was conducted on August 16. Two Il-76 transport aircraft and a MiG-31K fighter were destroyed. Five other aircraft stationed there were damaged, most likely MiG-31K fighters.

Heavy losses for the Russians associated with MiG-31K
The Ukrainian portal Defense Express notes that two days earlier, there was also an attack on the Savashleika airbase, which, although not as spectacular, destroyed a fuel depot and damaged one MiG-31K fighter.
The damage to six MiG-31K units and the destruction of one such machine will pose significant problems for the Russians. Defense Express reports that this constitutes 25% of all such machines in the invaders' army. Western analysts have long estimated that Russia's total number of MiG-31K fighters does not exceed 24 units.

Carrier of very dangerous weaponry
So far, the Russians have suffered significantly larger losses in terms of their other aircraft, such as the Su-25 or Su-34. However, these are not as advanced and valuable. Also, the Russians have much larger reserves of these aircraft, potentially over a hundred Su-34s.

The MiG-31K is a fighter unveiled in 2018. It measures about 72 feet in length and over 20 feet in width and can move at speeds of up to 1864 mph. Although it has a six-barrel 23 mm automatic cannon (with a supply of 260 rounds), its adaptation to carry the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles is much more significant in weaponry.

These missiles measure over 23 feet in length, reach 8-10 Mach speeds after launch, and can hit targets up to 1243 miles away. In practice, this means that launching them, for example, from Belarusian airspace, puts the whole of Ukraine within range. Therefore, the takeoff of every MiG-31K is associated with the announcement of an alarm.

[32-40win]

Plenty of OSINT analysis on the Marinovka field, it got hit pretty good, the munitions dump wrecked a few aircraft shelters, that appear to have aircraft in them, lot of pics from RU sources, they may have lost up to 6 aircraft there. Nothing lately on the Murmansk airfield since that initial release, but, it does throw a wrench into the RU air defense, again, think the furthest hit in that direction was around St Petersburg previously. Airfields seem to be a pig to hit properly, probably due to numbers of drones sent in vs AA defense, they do have a few hits on good stuff here and there, but, not enough to be crippling for the most part. Every little bit counts though, and the psychological effect certainly has traction in Russia. Even some folk on RU state TV questioning WTF is going on, publicly.
The hit on the fuel ferry in Kerch Strait would seem to force RU to use small ships or the Kursk bridge rail line, was supposedly the last roll on/ roll off ferry for rail traffic. Seems to be some trouble in Mongolia, with the 2nd gas pipeline to China, folk are suspecting contruction has been suspended according to a Mongolian news release that does not mention it in their "budget" ( for lack of a better desc).
For what the Ukes are launching overall in the way of those long drone attacks on the oil/gas stuff, they would certainly seem to be getting their money's worth.
Apparently they launched on the Proletarsk storage site again, near Rostov, and it's spread to the housing around the plant now, and to the kerosene tanks. Looks like they may get all 70 tanks yet, that's a big, nasty fire. Be interesting to see what damage the small strikes they've been doing at Belgorod & Kursk oil facilities have done in accumulated damage over the last year. Apparently a gas pipeline blew in Irkutsk, no idea how that affects eastern RU gas overall. Haven't seen much on what caused it, but, Moscow had a blackout the other nite, all speculation so far. Prison riot in Volgograd, they only shot & killed 4 prisoners apparently. They're issuing body armor to railway workers in a bunch of stations to the north of Kursk.
And apparently another Wagner type mercenary leader is calling Putin out in public.

[32-40win]

Looks like the owner of Telegram, who is Russian, and became a French citizen recently, got busted for facilitating drug trafficking and human trafficking and some other stuff on the Telegram platform. France is holding him responsible for not monitoring/ policing the platform. Russian population doesn't like that very much, Putin and he were in Baku last wk, and Putin would not meet with him. Hard to say what will happen to Telegram now.
Appears the RUAF finally has enough presence in the Kursk area to stop the UAF progressing with much more of the mobile type of ops they were conducting. Seems the "incursions" and "troop buildups" in Bryansk region and Zaporizhia were the result of paranoid Russians seeing a UAF offensive behind every tree so to speak.
They did pretty well by the look of things, seem to have accomplished a purpose of some form or another for themselves. Now to see how it all plays out in the next 6 mos or so politically in the west and in Russia. Russians are digging in west to SE of Kursk and building trenches again.

[urban rednek]

This one Russian drone that didn't make it.

Ukrainian door gunner- 1
Russian drone- 0

https://imgur.com/gallery/ukrainians...copter-NASiy7k

[32-40win]

Lukashenko is moving troops to the Belarus border, no doubt on Putin's orders. Ukraine told him to make sure they were far enough from the border to make sure they couldn't actually use their weapons "across" the border, or else. Poles no doubt said something too. Lukashenko's generals had said they want nothing to do with invading Ukraine previously, no word if they are still in that mode. Politically, he'd probably be doomed if he actually did do anything in that regard,not to mention the equipt and ammo they've given RUAF over the last year. They do have RUAF troops in there launching missiles though. They cross the Polish porder to hit western Ukraine, Poles complain, Poles run air patrols to intercept them for show, easier said than done. Poles don't want any more Belarussians in Poland either.
RUAF launched over 100 missiles & drones at Ukraine, in one shot, over the weekend, one damaged a dam north of Kiev, making Kiev nervous about flooding if it lets loose.
Some talk of RUAF warning residents that are left in Kursk area to get out, or else.
Some talk of an intercepted call by a Russian bigwig suggesting RU rail service may be in some serious trouble shortly, may have some truth to it, how much, who really knows. They could have some locomotive issues.
Fair bit of talk still about how RUAF is treating soldiers that don't want to fight not nice at all, supposedly from RU side.
Some stuff about Ukes hitting things around Volgograd, big ammo dump. Proletarsk firefighters have apparently resigned the tank farm to burning up, don't have the means to fight it. Not entirely sure the US would either.
Story circulating the US won't let Norway have some longer range missiles, could be Uke propaganda or they are actually getting a different product instead. Ukes are not getting what's been promised according to Zelensky, Czech deal for 1mil rds of arty got shortchanged on a price increase of 20%, etc.

[W921]

So you think Putin will have to pull out of conquered Ukraine land in order to take back conquered road Ukraine held Russian land around Kursk and to protect Moscow?