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07-01-2021, 08:46 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: West Central Alberta/Costa Rica
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Oil up to $76.00!! That's fantastic!!
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07-01-2021, 09:39 AM
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: GP AB
Posts: 16,765
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__________________
'Once the monkeys learn they can vote themselves a banana, they'll never climb another tree.'. Robert Heinlein
'You can accomplish a lot more with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.' Al Capone
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07-01-2021, 09:17 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Edmonton & Hinton
Posts: 548
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck
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Canada's May 2021 CPI is 3.6% year-over-year. That's way higher than the target range.
Ultimately the cause is government policy. I guess nobody told the Feds this (sarcasm).
Ugh. Not going to end well for many people.
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07-01-2021, 09:38 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: GP AB
Posts: 16,765
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No, it's not going to be pretty for many, as Pollievre pointed out. It's also pretty much inevitable, all a person can do is prepare as wisely as possible. You can't dodge it.
Trudeau and Freeland and all their sycophants, with the Magic Money Tree (MMT), buying an election with borrowed dollars. When the other shoe drops, it's going to be ugly.
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'Once the monkeys learn they can vote themselves a banana, they'll never climb another tree.'. Robert Heinlein
'You can accomplish a lot more with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.' Al Capone
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07-01-2021, 09:52 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 3,050
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck
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X2 .Something all should really look at. JT has to go.
JD
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07-02-2021, 01:18 PM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,922
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck
No, it's not going to be pretty for many, as Pollievre pointed out. It's also pretty much inevitable, all a person can do is prepare as wisely as possible. You can't dodge it.
Trudeau and Freeland and all their sycophants, with the Magic Money Tree (MMT), buying an election with borrowed dollars. When the other shoe drops, it's going to be ugly.
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politician will still get a nice pension for life , after all this crap ... 
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07-02-2021, 03:37 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: GP AB
Posts: 16,765
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishtank
politician will still get a nice pension for life , after all this crap ... |
But at least it is indexed for inflation.
__________________
'Once the monkeys learn they can vote themselves a banana, they'll never climb another tree.'. Robert Heinlein
'You can accomplish a lot more with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.' Al Capone
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07-04-2021, 06:29 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: GP AB
Posts: 16,765
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I would bet Trudeau and Freeland could read this story, and not even make the remotest connection to what the potential is for Canada to go down this road, as they keep building back better with imaginary printed borrowed money.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...y-transactions
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'Once the monkeys learn they can vote themselves a banana, they'll never climb another tree.'. Robert Heinlein
'You can accomplish a lot more with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.' Al Capone
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07-06-2021, 08:46 AM
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: GP AB
Posts: 16,765
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Another article about how wealthy Canadians got during the Pandemic. Wealth as a number is meaningless as the cost of everything goes up, and inflation eats away buying power. Again, it won't end well, you can't create money out of thin air without consequences.
https://financialpost.com/executive/...-housing-story
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'Once the monkeys learn they can vote themselves a banana, they'll never climb another tree.'. Robert Heinlein
'You can accomplish a lot more with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.' Al Capone
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07-08-2021, 08:34 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
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TC
I agree with your comments about people suffering. Anyone who is living on a fixed income is already hurting from the massive rise in grocery, gas, utilities costs and rents. If they already had no spare income then they are at the point of having to figure out which necessities they are going to cut back on so they can still get by.
For people that currently have room in their monthly budget, that surplus is getting eaten up very quickly. The only way to protect yourself long term from inflation is to own assets that go up as inflation rises. Real property, businesses that can pass on price increases and stocks in Oligopolies that are paying increasing amounts of dividends are the assets to own. There is also benefit in holding products that have a long term rising value like gold, and other commodities. Sitting in cash in highly inflationary times is just watching your money shrink.
When you can sell a two year old pickup with 100,000 Kilometres on it for within $5,000 of what ordering a new one costs, and house prices are going up 30%+ a year, you know stuff is not about to get cheaper any time soon. Finding ways to increase your income is the only way to stay even or beat inflation.
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07-08-2021, 10:50 AM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,922
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
TC
I agree with your comments about people suffering. Anyone who is living on a fixed income is already hurting from the massive rise in grocery, gas, utilities costs and rents. If they already had no spare income then they are at the point of having to figure out which necessities they are going to cut back on so they can still get by.
For people that currently have room in their monthly budget, that surplus is getting eaten up very quickly. The only way to protect yourself long term from inflation is to own assets that go up as inflation rises. Real property, businesses that can pass on price increases and stocks in Oligopolies that are paying increasing amounts of dividends are the assets to own. There is also benefit in holding products that have a long term rising value like gold, and other commodities. Sitting in cash in highly inflationary times is just watching your money shrink.
When you can sell a two year old pickup with 100,000 Kilometres on it for within $5,000 of what ordering a new one costs, and house prices are going up 30%+ a year, you know stuff is not about to get cheaper any time soon. Finding ways to increase your income is the only way to stay even or beat inflation.
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Feels like It’s only beginning, Will get a lot worst in a few months , there are massive amount of new money entering the market, these are not long term investor, but gamblers ...with the self invest push by robinhood, Wealthsimple and crypto etc. Big money are still holding out and waiting to swallow up the little fishes. Also saw the headline on lowest mortgage 5 year variable rate is 0.98% ...Damn
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07-12-2021, 11:08 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Calgary
Posts: 4,090
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anyone know of an overall stock market chart or graph thats free online . I seem to have an issue finding one
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07-12-2021, 11:10 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,868
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marlin1
anyone know of an overall stock market chart or graph thats free online . I seem to have an issue finding one
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https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/markets
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07-13-2021, 06:50 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
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More news on the Brookfield/Pembina deal for IPL in favor of Pembina. We will see how the market views it today.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/br...013209055.html
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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07-13-2021, 08:22 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: West Central Alberta/Costa Rica
Posts: 1,132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
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Well I'm hoping Pembina will complete the deal. At one point Brookfield said they would pay Interpipe the break fee with Pembina in full.
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07-13-2021, 08:46 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,868
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
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Brookfield has really messed up this bid for IPL. They have been acting like real sharks and they have been pulling a lot of really underhanded stuff, just like they always do. They have shown a lot of small shareholders just how greasy their financial engineering is, and how little transparency they have in their companies. Not only did they fail at getting the Break Fee removed, they now must acquire a full 75% of the company shares to be classed as successful. I really doubt they have any chance of collecting another 55% unless they dramatically increase the cash offer for IPL. I really think that at this stage they are just trying to push the price as high as they can so they can sell the 20% they hold now for $10-15 per share more than they paid for it.
Like I said before, I sold almost all of my IPL shares at $20.25 and bought PPL at $38, so however this turns out I have swapped at way better than the 2 IPl for 1 PPL share swap PPL is offering, I got it at 2 IPL for 1.1 PPL PPL is running 40.25-40.50 now but hit a recent high of 41.25, with IPL still running 20.10 to 20.20. I expect PPL to continue to go up, and they offer a monthly dividend far superior to what IPL was paying.
On the commodities front, lumber has given up all the massive gains in the wholesale price but the price of lumber in stores will be at least 6 months before they start to come down, if they actually do. Oil however continues to climb as supply grows tighter across the world. Rig activity is actually increasing and between Ensign and Precision they are looking to hire +2,000 people in the next couple of months.
High inflation is still being driven by rising food, fuel and housing costs as well as ongoing supply chain disruptions that are months to years from being addressed. Once the governments ramp up taxes to pay for this spending binge we will see that effect added to base inflation.
Canadian Banks will soon be allowed to increase their dividends and start doing share buybacks. U.S. and U.K. banks have already been allowed to do this. The Canadian Banks have come up a long ways from the lows last year but once they are free to increase dividends there is more upside yet. (Exception is BNS who's current payout is already above their target range and Laurentain Bank for the same reason, despite Laurentian slashing their dividend last year.).
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07-13-2021, 09:14 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Calgary, AB
Posts: 2,215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JD848
X2 .Something all should really look at. JT has to go.
JD
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This guy is amazing.....Pierre Pollievre gets it.
https://youtu.be/35tvAeTTY3k
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Life is like baseball; it is the number of times you reach home safely, that counts.
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07-13-2021, 09:58 PM
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Alot of commodities including lumber are still well up from pre-covid. Lumber, corn, soybeans, wheat, hogs, sugar, cotton, copper are all up significantly from where they were two years ago. Lumber futures in July/19 were around 350$ so despite lumber giving back some of its parabolic gains of 2020, it is still double the price of two years ago. The US CPI print came in today at the highest level since the GFC.
What makes zero sense is what the bond market is telling us. How does a ten year year under 1.5% and a 30 year at 2% make any sense with and inflation print of 5.4%. It doesn't. The Feds are stuck in a bad spot where they cannot normalize rates. Who knows what is going to happen with the way things are going. The only guarantee is the government is going to try and dig more taxes out of us.
The Brookfield/Pembina deal is sure interesting to watch as a holder of both. Hopefully a win/win.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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07-13-2021, 10:13 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: GP AB
Posts: 16,765
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It's interesting to go back to the first half dozen pages of this thread, Feb 25-28 2020, and then to look at the Dow pushing 35K today, TSX 22K+. In 16 months.
We live in unprecedented times. Now if only Build Back Better didn't scare the living bejesus out of me.
__________________
'Once the monkeys learn they can vote themselves a banana, they'll never climb another tree.'. Robert Heinlein
'You can accomplish a lot more with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.' Al Capone
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07-14-2021, 08:11 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
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Good article by Ben Hunt on transitory inflation and the FED. Looks at the BS that goes with official CPI number including the efforts in the 70's to distort the true reading.
https://www.epsilontheory.com/im-so-...lation-debate/
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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07-14-2021, 08:29 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,868
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
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That is a good article. I particularly like this section as it is exactly what is happening right now. CPI is being measured against what has gone up the least, not by a full range of products that truly represent the cost of living for the average person.
I also agree with yyour earlier comment that while many commodities have come off their highs they are still way up from the prices pre-covid.
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The Ghost of Arthur BurnsWhen US oil prices quadrupled following the OPEC oil embargo in the aftermath of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Burns argued that, since this had nothing to do with monetary policy, the Fed should exclude oil and energy-related products (such as home heating oil and electricity) from the consumer price index.
Then came surging food prices, which Burns surmised in 1973 were traceable to unusual weather – specifically, an El Niño event that had decimated Peruvian anchovies in 1972. He insisted that this was the source of rising fertilizer and feedstock prices, in turn driving up beef, poultry, and pork prices. Like good soldiers, we gulped and followed his order to take food – which had a weight of 25% – out of the CPI.
Burns didn’t stop there. Over the next few years, he periodically uncovered similar idiosyncratic developments affecting the prices of mobile homes, used cars, children’s toys, even women’s jewelry (gold mania, he dubbed it); he also raised questions about homeownership costs, which accounted for another 16% of the CPI. Take them all out, he insisted!
By the time Burns was done, only about 35% of the CPI was left – and it was rising at a double-digit rate! Only at that point, in 1975, did Burns concede – far too late – that the United States had an inflation problem. The painful lesson: ignore so-called transitory factors at great peril.
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07-14-2021, 10:04 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
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You might find this interview with Russell Napier interesting too. Talks about similar periods in history and strategies to protect your wealth from inflation and out of control CB's.
https://themarket.ch/interview/russe...ession-ld.4628
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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07-14-2021, 06:32 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: GP AB
Posts: 16,765
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A good article here about the CMHC, and the insane debt load Canada has built up on housing.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/sab...anadas-economy
__________________
'Once the monkeys learn they can vote themselves a banana, they'll never climb another tree.'. Robert Heinlein
'You can accomplish a lot more with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.' Al Capone
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07-15-2021, 08:24 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
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__________________
There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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07-15-2021, 08:41 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,868
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
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Saw that on the early ticker at 5. Typical Brookfield move, try to steal it at 16.50, wine and winge when someone counter offers, then go to court and regulator to see if you can throw some excrement around, then keep raising the bid 25 cents at a time. Brookfield has always been a greasy bunch of slime balls, but their bid activity really did jack up the price of IPL. It was sitting around 12 bucks before all this started, so all in it has been great for IPL shareholders. PPL share price needs to get to about $43 bucks to match but has come off some to $39.50. Be interesting to see if PPL bumps their conversion rate to pick up the difference.
Napier's interview was pretty light on ways to protect your wealth. Being bullish on Equities is fine but there is a big difference in which equities you want to hold during an inflationary cycle. He also wasn't real clear about when to know it is time to rotate back out of equities and how to tell when the Fed is forcing banks to buy bonds to keep interest rates suppressed.
Twisted Canuck
The CMHC info and further testimony by the housing minister tells you just how messed up government financing is. Then the Bank of Canada comes out and says it isn't worried about inflation, is easing back on buying but keeps interest rates the same while saying it is relying on the consumer to create the recovery. Man, these guys can talk out of both side of their mouth and out their butt at the same time. This country is in some real serious trouble if we don't get a government in place that knows what they are doing and don't just keep taking the easy way out.
Last edited by Dean2; 07-15-2021 at 08:49 AM.
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07-15-2021, 09:24 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
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Yes he didn't speak on the types of equities, just his preference for equities, real estate and gold as inflation hedges. I think the main point is that cash is a huge drag in an inflationary environment.
Right now the FED is the buyer of bonds, and bonds of all kinds, not just the ones the government is selling to pay for their spending. Government treasuries, corporates and mortgage backed securities are all being bought by the FED. They are the bid under the market suppressing yields. The banks etc. are holding the proceeds on their balance sheets as the FED is trying to spur lending growth and increase money supply and velocity. When they start limiting QE and try and turn the inflation boat around they will have to reverse course. The Bank of Canada finally made a small step in that direction yesterday when they decreased their bond buying program from $3 billion down to $2 billion a week I believe it was. The FEDS only directly control the short end of the curve, the long end they only influence via their activity in the bond market.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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07-15-2021, 09:33 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
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And this distortion of the bond market also feeds into this whole CMHC thing. Keeping rates at artificially low levels and backstopping lenders has increased the hazard of people taking on more debt than they can handle, especially if the bond market finally forces up interest rates on the long end of the curve. Many people stretched to handle the debt they have now, will be screwed if rates rise anywhere close to what they should be with the level of inflation. That also goes for governments and corporations. We are in a debt trap and who knows where it ends. On the housing front we could end up in the same place as the States did in 2008.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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07-15-2021, 09:51 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
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This is just my humble opinion, but for the equities side I want stuff that can maintain margins as cost pressures rise, companies that produce stuff people need and that is increasing in price, companies that produce excess cash flow that they can use to give back to me in the form of dividends and/or buybacks. Basically I want cash flow now, not later in this environment. I also expect we could see some downside volatility and if I get the opportunity of a deep pullback I will probably use some leverage on the equity side or sell some of my gold if it stays roughly at this price. We'll see when/if the time comes. Definitely interesting times ahead I think.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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07-15-2021, 12:29 PM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,922
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
This is just my humble opinion, but for the equities side I want stuff that can maintain margins as cost pressures rise, companies that produce stuff people need and that is increasing in price, companies that produce excess cash flow that they can use to give back to me in the form of dividends and/or buybacks. Basically I want cash flow now, not later in this environment. I also expect we could see some downside volatility and if I get the opportunity of a deep pullback I will probably use some leverage on the equity side or sell some of my gold if it stays roughly at this price. We'll see when/if the time comes. Definitely interesting times ahead I think.
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i dont think at time like these we are looking for growth but rather just parking it in a safe area until the storm pass, equities like you mention are like p&g , unilever, krafts, walmart etc.. they maintain their divident record is solid but if the market tanks they will go down with it , you just have to hold til it recover might take a few years, like in 2008 they all did tanks and come back stronger . adjust your risk depending on your age and stage of life. the market always moves up .
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07-16-2021, 10:45 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,868
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I get This newsletter every week and it has very good content. Some of you may want to subscribe too, it is free.
5-Chart Friday (7/16/21)
Register here for our Webinar on July 27th discussing the most important charts and themes thus far in 2021 (a replay will be sent to those that register).
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This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service.
Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications.
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5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing…
1) 5%Inflation
Inflation in the US continues to march higher, hitting 5% overall for the first time since 2008. Core CPI (which excludes food/energy) rose to 4.5%, its highest level since 1991.
       
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