Ukraine is taking the war to Russian territory

[Rusty50]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Sometimes our freedoms are important and war is needed. WWII. If Canada, US and Australia refused to enter the war… what would you life be like today?

Exactly this!! USA supplied arms to England before entering WWII. All in this country should be grateful for the sacrifices of our forefathers for putting an end to that tyranny. And here we are once again, same scenario, different dictator. No one want's to make the sacrifices till it's on their doorstep. If it does come you'll be grateful for any help.

[BuckCuller]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

If you don’t understand what freedoms Putin will take away from Ukrainians… I guess this will be a difficult conversation.

If somehow you believe a vaccine or a mask is anywhere near the same level or degree of what freedoms are that are at risk under Putin’s control… I am very happy you weren’t in charge of decisions for WWII.

lol. Plus you missed the X Trump and Musk interview last night wherein Trump said his creation of the vaccine was a huge triumph for his administration.

I get it. You want Putin to win as that is your prerogative. I strongly disagree with you.

But I get it. If Russia attacked Canada, you would want to surrender as long as Putin allowed trucker protests and no vaccines.

Hate to burst your bubble but if you protested him… you’d go to jail even if you just held a sign or shouted an anti Putin slogan. You wouldn’t have to worry about vaccines as theirs didn’t work.

To compare the Ukraine war to WWII is laughable at best. If you think Putin is an unhinged dictator like I do then you must believe this is a war he is not willing to lose without the eventual use of nuclear weapons.
Hitler did not have nuclear weapons but if he did, what do you think he would have done?

[kingrat]

Putin is no doubt a dictator but I can't see him using nukes. He's alot smarter than that.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by BuckCuller

You are absolutely right, but I know in real life the good guy’s don’t always win.
I firmly believe that it will end worse for Ukraine without a peace deal made.

lol

They had a peace deal. They give up their nuclear weapons and Russia won’t ever attack.

Hey… they attacked.

So let’s sign a new deal. I’m sure Russia can be trusted the second time.

Sigh.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by BuckCuller

To compare the Ukraine war to WWII is laughable at best. If you think Putin is an unhinged dictator like I do then you must believe this is a war he is not willing to lose without the eventual use of nuclear weapons.
Hitler did not have nuclear weapons but if he did, what do you think he would have done?

So I know this guy who is unhinged. I mean Jungleboy crazy level unhinged.

He messaged me and said if you don’t send him $200,000 and your deed to your home and car… I’m worried he’s capable of anything.

Where shall I feel him you are forwarding his new stuff as it would be crazy for you to fight back in any way shape or form.

[ruffy71]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

lol

They had a peace deal. They give up their nuclear weapons and Russia won’t ever attack.

Hey… they attacked.

So let’s sign a new deal. I’m sure Russia can be trusted the second time.

Sigh.

The second time?? I'm Ukrainian on my dad's side, and ever since this war started I've tried to read as much as I can. The history of Ukraine is fascinating, sad, infuriating and inspiring all at the same time.

Which is a long winded way to say this is like the 15th go around between Russia and Ukraine.

For starters you can check out "Gates of Europe" by Plokhy and "Shoah in Ukraine" by various authors, "Bloodlands" by Snyder. That will just get the ball rolling. There's over a 1000 years of documented Ukrainian history going back to the greeks, and before that, undocumented history of the pagans......
ooops silly me, of course I'm just making that up because Ukrainians and Ukraine don't really exist. Right, Vlad?

[jungleboy]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

So I know this guy who is unhinged. I mean Jungleboy crazy level unhinged.

He messaged me and said if you don’t send him $200,000 and your deed to your home and car… I’m worried he’s capable of anything.

Where shall I feel him you are forwarding his new stuff as it would be crazy for you to fight back in any way shape or form.

Cute.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by jungleboy

Cute.

Thanks. Teasing can go both ways you say. Or was that Yoda?

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by ruffy71

The second time?? I'm Ukrainian on my dad's side, and ever since this war started I've tried to read as much as I can. The history of Ukraine is fascinating, sad, infuriating and inspiring all at the same time.

Which is a long winded way to say this is like the 15th go around between Russia and Ukraine.

For starters you can check out "Gates of Europe" by Plokhy and "Shoah in Ukraine" by various authors, "Bloodlands" by Snyder. That will just get the ball rolling. There's over a 1000 years of documented Ukrainian history going back to the greeks, and before that, undocumented history of the pagans......
ooops silly me, of course I'm just making that up because Ukrainians and Ukraine don't really exist. Right, Vlad?

Sorry. I was referring to https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buda...wer%20reactors. as a simplified reason as to not trust Russia again.

[BuckCuller]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

So I know this guy who is unhinged. I mean Jungleboy crazy level unhinged.

He messaged me and said if you don’t send him $200,000 and your deed to your home and car… I’m worried he’s capable of anything.

Where shall I feel him you are forwarding his new stuff as it would be crazy for you to fight back in any way shape or form.

Someone is unhinged but I’m not certain it’s Jungleboy.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by BuckCuller

Someone is unhinged but I’m not certain it’s Jungleboy.

Aren’t we all… just a little bit lol.

[ruffy71]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Sorry. I was referring to https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buda...wer%20reactors. as a simplified reason as to not trust Russia again.

No apology necessary, I was just piggybacking on your post. Not actually trying to criticize what you said.

[jungleboy]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Thanks. Teasing can go both ways you say. Or was that Yoda?

Ya but. I’m unhinged

[Drewski Canuck]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

lol

They had a peace deal. They give up their nuclear weapons and Russia won’t ever attack.

Hey… they attacked.

So let’s sign a new deal. I’m sure Russia can be trusted the second time.

Sigh.

AND the West promised to come to Ukraine's aid if Ukraine should ever be attacked, and then handed over millions to Ukraine for the Nukes.

You kinda missed that very important part about the West not coming up with their end of the bargain in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.

But since the record is now straight, you can understand that the situation would NEVER HAVE HAPPENED if Ukraine still had its Nukes in 2014.

Drewski

[Irina]

It’s too bad everyone isn’t focussed on what our corrupt government is doing every single day. Just look over that way always. I guess that’s the way because if one started a thread about our government the hammer would come down.

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

AND the West promised to come to Ukraine's aid if Ukraine should ever be attacked

No one promised to come to Ukraine’s aid unless it is attacked with nuclear weapons. This has been twisted in all kinds of ways, but the reality is different. Here is the relevant part from the Budapest memo:

The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon state party to the Treaty on the NonProliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

As can be seen, in fact, there are no guarantees of security, provision of military assistance, protection, etc. The only commitment is to seek immediate action to provide help via the UN Security Council action.

The full memo, along with all the signatures and everything can be found here (pdf): https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publicat...07-I-52241.pdf

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Thanks.

Was hoping you’d chime in.

It appears while conscripts can’t be sent to wars outside of Russia… they can be sent to the defacto front lines but on the Russian side of the border.

Yes, they can be used within the Russian borders at will of the Ministry of Defense. This is why Ukraine is ridiculously disadvantaged once they cross that border. While Russia has up to 600,000 (I don’t know what the latest numbers are) troops at their disposal to fight in Ukraine, they have at least another half a million (likely a lot more) at their disposal within Russia. This number includes the contracted troops in training, rotation, reserves, etc (these are also part of the other number), as well as conscripts, FSB (that also has conscripts of their own), Rosgvardia, MVD, among others. Ukraine doesn’t have a chance within the Russian borders once Russia organizes (getting there now). All those photos and videos of the captured Russian troops you saw were conscripts within the military department and FSB border guards (ie, also conscripts). Those photos and videos of the destroyed Russian convoy and other trucks that carry people were all conscripts.

While on this subject, to develop on this idea, consider Bakhmut last year. Ukraine lost about 8,000 of their elite troops in that battle. Russia lost just shy of 20,000 (19,600 or something like that). However, of the 20,000 over 17,000 were convicts, the rest were also of questionable “quality” (in the sense of capability). In other words, in the words of Jack Watling (I think it was), while Russia lost more personnel, Ukraine was the loosing side not because they lost the battle, but because they lost a lot more experience and capability than did the Russians. This is crucial and why pretty much everyone with knowledge considers the “Bakhmut Fortress” or whatever Zelensky called it to be a complete insanity on the part of Zelensky and Ukrainian command. Zaluzhny wanted to pull out. Zelensky wanted to hold, Syrsky as well. There were many smaller battles like this since, under the command of Syrsky, except the losses were not necessarily as skewed to one side.

Consider this, on the same note. The current identified, geolocated, and recorded equipment losses in Kursk (and Sumy since the start of the offensive) for both sides: Russia lost 22 vehicles and Ukraine lost 29. The numbers are obviously not exact, but what good people of internet could identify reliably. It doesn’t seem like a big deal, 22 vs 29, especially since Ukraine is on the offensive here (in that case it actually looks like Ukraine is doing great). But let’s look at what these numbers are made of:

- Ukraine lost 4 tanks, 8 AFVs, 14 IMVs, 2 anti-aircraft systems, 1 engineering vehicle (extremely rare in Ukraine), and one classified as transport. Of these 5 were captured by Russia.

- Russia lost 4 tanks, 1 self-propelled artillery unit, 1 helicopter, 1 drone, and a whopping 15 classified as transport. Of these 1 was captured by the Ukrainians and it was the drone. All 4 tanks were destroyed while still in the haul (ie on the trailers).

The info came from here, if you do Twitter/X: https://x.com/naalsio26/status/1823520515543155060

While this is clearly not a full picture, from both sides, but it is pretty clear what is happening there, isn’t it? Russia lost a whole bunch of conscripts with little value as far the war is concerned. Ukraine, yet again, is loosing a bunch of literally most capable fighters, this is by their own admission. They are also losing equipment that is extremely scarce and is very needed elsewhere. But hey, they are now reportedly digging in on the land that they cannot hold for an extended period of time, but are going to lose a lot of capability while doing so. Time will tell what happens.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

It appears that after one year of being a conscript they are considered servicemen after that and can be deployed to the front.

No, this is not the case. Any conscript has an option to be a conscript for one year, serve his time, and go home after that (unless he is determined to stay and sign a contract, basically choosing a military career, however long). Another option they have is to sogn a contract when conscripted, for two years, essentially becoming a contract soldier, but this type of contractors are also not used in Ukraine.

To note here, there were occasions when the conscripted personnel ended up on the front line. My guess is these were from the second category. I believe there are 150 or there about killed in action were recorded among these guys in Ukraine. This by no means is an indication of Russia using these guys as a rule. Rather it is an exception due to the… I don’t know, call it a cluster-ef of the way they run things - basically some sort of confusion, though this is not surprising simply due to the quantity of men going through the system.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

The conscripts have great value as mothers in Russia have mobilized in the past against conscripts used in the Afghan and Chechnya wars.

While the first part is true, to a degree, the second is false. Afghan was the Soviet thing, to begin with. There is a difference. The war had lasted for 10 years, keep in mind. We are looong way from there and the conscripted kids do not serve in Ukraine, unless by choice. Chechnya was a whole different animal and the war in Russia. Basically another decade (and there are still counterterrorist operations in the region regularly - nasty radicalized islamic stuff for the most part). To keep in mind, Putin came to power and held it with extremely high (real) ratings during this war. Then, there is this knock of reality to consider, of course: https://x.com/alxgraef/status/1822994508830654924. Or this: https://x.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1823393274771460128

^ Those two links represents knowledge and understanding of how things work. The rubbish spewed on most of the internet is just that, rubbish. The guy in the second link is, in my opinion, the most knowledgeable guy on Russia, as in real Russia, today. I would recommend grabbing his books on Russia from the library, they have at least a couple (I know because I took them out and read).

Another link I wanted to provide here on the regular Russia stuff, but cannot find at the moment. I will if I find it as it is a very good short read.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Neither side is saying exactly where the control boundary lies however Russian media has reported heavy fighting on the outskirts of Sudzha. It appears for all intents and purposes… Sudzha is control by Ukraine… but for how long is anyone’s guess. Can you link to your source?

I can’t really link my source as it is way too many to link, lol. Apologies for not providing any sources in my previous post, but usually people do not care enough to open them anyway, but argue for the sake of proving themselves right because they saw other stuff posted on the internet. I follow probably a dozen Telegram channels, Ukrainian and Russian, another dozen of Twitter guys and gals, mostly western knowledgeable people, actual experts, but also some Ukrainian dudes. Plus the news media. Basically, when the house goes to sleep, I read these among other things, more often than not. But let’s see for the particular sources for Sudzha. Here are a couple of current maps. One is from the Russian source called Rybar. The other is from the Deepstate, a Ukrainian outlet.





While both outlets are propaganda machines for their respective sides, give it a week or so and their maps become identical. In this case, Rybar indicates that most of Sudzha now is either under Ukrainian control or in the grey zone, while Deepstate still sees it as mostly grey zone. This is, of course, just to provide some “source”. What I posted is based on numerous sources and reports of fighting in the areas, maps by various outlets, etc.

Here is another map: https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1823480634347590141
Another: https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1823180003745694176

None are trustworthy because the situation is fluid (but the links are the most current stuff these guys have to offer). Give it a week or two and see what happens.

Here is an excellent take on the situation in Kursk by Mick Ryan and includes his map that shows Sudzha mostly under Russian control: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...317612832.html

So yes, all the eco chamber stuff can get pretty loud with mostly unsubstantiated noise.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Is Russia going to use the same bomb and raze and scorch everything policy if it’s their own land? Will be interesting to see.

They absolutely will. There is no doubt about it. None of these areas have much relevance, aside from the fact that this is actually the Russian land.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Ukraine does appear to have some of their best fighters and equipment and air support in this push… which could mean Russia needs to move their best over in response. I would suspect reservists will continue to surrender once put under the gun.

This is not the case - see the Bakhmut example above. Also, these guys are not reservists. Reservists are the guys that were mobilized almost a couple of years ago now. The guys you are talking about are conscripted personnel. I also do not believe they will continue to surrender. Once things are organized, they will fight, I am sure. But again, you are not looking at the big picture. The Russians are now using the actual battle ready reserves (that can be sent to Ukraine any time they are needed there), along with conscripts and other ish, mentioned above. They have massive internal resources as far as manpower is concerned. Ukraine doesn’t have that - they have been picking up random people off the street for months now and the amount of men trying to leave the country by any means has only been increasing. Equipment is another issue though. However, Russia is still dominating greatly in this department as well.

In regard to equipment, something I thought was interesting. The 4 tanks that were so far destroyed by Ukraine in Kursk are the best tanks Russia has in service, T-90 aside. What makes this interesting is that I have been reading for a while now, there is a “suspicion” by some that Russia still has a good stock of good “stuff” that they keep and it is only increasing. I don’t know if this supports these claims or not, but interesting nonetheless.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Russia has been making slow progress on the Ukraine front albeit with heavy loses. Ukraine sadly takes loses also but the Russian meat grinder takes a heavy toll on Russian troops.

They take higher losses in one place, while Ukrainians take higher losses in the other. The number of casualties is not necessarily relevant though - again, back to the Bakhmut example. It is also worth noting that Russia has been on the offensive for about 10 months now and they are nowhere near exhausting their resources. Ukraine, on the other hand… well. This is just the current reality. Whether this will change, we do not know, but critical thinking and assessing the current situation suggest the inevitable. This is my opinion.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

If as you say the Ukrainians dig in then glide bombs are an issue. Saw on the reports that Ukraine supposedly blew up over 700 at an airbase. It was on Reddit. Not glide bombs names specifically but it seems to make sense given the location.

Yes, they hit the airbase storage facility (and then one or two more). Here is a Telegram link with photos from one of the strikes, the biggest (no idea how and if it opens without an app): https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/580. 700 is a huge number, and is obviously unrealistic (imagine the number itself and bombs ranging from 250 to 3,000). The good news is there were some missiles there as well. The bad news is that even if we believe the claim of 700 “glide bombs” destroyed, Russia likely has tens of thousands more and only have to build the UMPK/glide kits for them, that look like a chop shop job, but they work quite well. The destroyed missiles are a bigger issue, but, again, not a life changing event.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Will Ukraine pull back or push forward? Hard to tell what their core strategy is. Only they really know at the moment and strategy may be multi leveled.

Do they know though? Earlier today:

Shown speaking by video link, the Ukrainian leader asked his top commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, to develop the next "key steps" in the operation.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...nd-2024-08-13/

See the Mick Rysn’s take above. Here is another take: https://x.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1823430559437115801. I can provide a dozen or two more. They all suggest, in one way or another, that the best strategy is to withdraw now. There were some reports today that Russia is withdrawing troops from the front. One was by an anonymous source in the US intel and a (unexpectedly) very careful statement by a Ukrainian general. The former stated that troop withdrawal is taking place, the latter said they withdrew a “very limited number of troops” or something like that. I do not see either of these claims as reasonable and would trust this guy instead (for now):

Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, said on Monday that Russia had mostly relied on nearby military units to try to push back Ukrainian forces.

"Russians should have enough reserves, so that they should not be forced to weaken the 'Centre' group of forces which is currently pressuring the Ukrainian lines near Toretsk and Pokrovsk," he said.

Would recommend following him on Twitter (and the whole group as well). The quote is from the same Reuters article cited above.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

As for the metering station? Maybe they can crank the taps on and erase the info on throughout. Maybe EU is going to get some free gas. No love lost to capturing anything Russian as they have stolen so much from Ukraine.

There are other taps, clearly.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

All the Russian talk about a big response back… hmmm. Russia has attacked hospitals, schools, apartments, restaurants, malls, energy infrastructure. They bomb civilians all the time.

Ukraine does the same, but limited to the capabilities. Also, “all the time” is a hyperbole. War crime is a war crime though. However, the meaning has been greatly diluted lately.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

If only Ukraine had the same population as Russia… the country would be unified unified with Zelenskyy as leader and Putin in the gulag.

Not reality.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

As for if Russia chose to stabilize the situation in Kurst… they obviously want to… it’s not a matter of choosing… it’s a matter of strategy and logistical and military competence.

Once they get their brains working… they will eventually get to a position where they can stabilize. But maybe Ukraine does something else.

Russian command and control structure is entirely laughable. The skill of their troops is laughable with the exception of a few areas of battle hardened fighters.

We will have to wait and see what happens next. Ukraine is being very secret and Russia is clueless at the moment.

What I was saying in regard to the matter of choice was the choice to stabilize the situation or contain it, if you will, meaning to stop the Ukrainian advances, let them dig in if they choose to do so (seems like they are at the moment), and continue doing what they are doing in Ukraine itself. This would be versus the other choice, which is send an unreasonable amount of troops and equipment and try to remove the Ukrainians as quickly as possible. The former would be a win for Russia as Ukraine will inevitably lose with high loses. Or they will retreat, largely beaten and wounded, with, again, high losses. The latter, is hard to predict, but Ukrainians will be removed from the Russian territory regardless, but Russia will incur losses that may be unreasonable and unnecessary.

I said in my previous post, see what Russia did in the Kharkiv region. The exact same thing Ukraine is doing now in Kursk. Ukraine pulled an unreasonable amount of force trying to get the Russians out and they have been stuck there, taking huge losses, while losing everywhere else. The difference is that Russia has resources and Ukraine does not. In other words, Russia can afford Kharkiv because it helps their cause everywhere else (except for the Russian territory, apparently, lol). Ukraine is losing everywhere but Kursk and Kursk is clearly temporary. So a bit of a difference.

In regard to the laughable and whatever internet stuff aside, Ukraine and Russia have identical command structures and it shows more and more now. And I mean it literally. It seemed to be different under Zaluzhny, wether it was real or not, who knows.

I’ll also add, Ukraine had the largest army on the European continent, behind Russia. They had more equipment than any other country in the Euro zone (including the UK) when the conflict began in 2022 (in fact more than many, if not most, countries combined). Since, they went through close to all of that equipment plus (almost) everyone else’s in Europe. This is just for perspective and I will dig up the proof for the claim, if necessary. Which is why Russia failed with their grotesque plan in February of 2022.

This will likely be my last extensive post on the subject (likely).

[6.5 shooter]

Still can't believe some of you still think Google is a reliable and "good" source of information. Especially since it's algorithm is slanted a specific direction, but lead on.

[Sundancefisher]

It’s been said conscripts cants be sent elsewhere to fight in a war.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/...er-says-a86016

Yet, conscripts are by law “considered military personnel with all the rights and responsibilities that entails," Sergei Krivenko, director of the Citizen. Army. Rights human rights group, told The Moscow Times.

Under Russian law, a conscript can be sent into combat for special tasks just four months after being drafted and receiving their initial military specialty.

"After four months, there are no restrictions at all — they become full-fledged soldiers and can be deployed not only to Ukraine but also anywhere in the world,” Krivenko said.

Fact is there is lots of people taking stock of internet and Telegram reports and photos and videos to put together a picture of what is happening. Given this is war and full of misinformation and ever changing everything… what one sees online is but a vague guess. Still some will use it to suggest one side is winning or losing.

It was said above that conscripts can’t be used in war to their full degree but must sign a contract after a year if they want to stay fighting. This fellow says differently. So who to believe?

One Russia report says Sudzha has fallen to Ukraine. Another says fighting remains on the outskirts so it still hasn’t fallen.

Russians destroyed their own military column heading to Kursk but I don’t think another posters sources linked that. Plus heavy Russian equipment is just heading to that new front now. Ukraine has wiped out a column all on their own.

This Kursk front is huge and Russia has their work cut out for them. Some say Russia has a ton of reserves to move in without disturbing their current offensive lines. Other sources say troops and equipment from other front line areas are being move which suggests it’s false.

It will be interesting to see in the long run which online sources are correct if any.

But Ukraine has taken it to Russia. Dealt a serious blow and have a textbook case of a successful counteract upsetting many pro Russian war folks.

[Fradaburidi]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

So who to believe?

Westerners that are experts on eastern countries they didn't even visit, let alone lived in one of them. Like Anthony Rota who just because he was a Canadian knew everything about Russia, Ukraine and Europe.

Man, how I love those experts.

[Talking moose]

Originally Posted by Fradaburidi

Westerners that are experts on eastern countries they didn't even visit, let alone lived in one of them. Like Anthony Rota who just because he was a Canadian knew everything about Russia, Ukraine and Europe.

Man, how I love those experts.

We have experts in covid, hockey, American politics, and war.
Heck we even have a couple members expert in all fields. lol.

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

It’s been said conscripts cants be sent elsewhere to fight in a war.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/...er-says-a86016

No. They can be sent anywhere within Russia, but not outside the borders.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Fact is there is lots of people taking stock of internet and Telegram reports and photos and videos to put together a picture of what is happening. Given this is war and full of misinformation and ever changing everything… what one sees online is but a vague guess. Still some will use it to suggest one side is winning or losing.

One thing to keep in mind is one need to realize what they are reading and who wrote it and for what purpose. This is not rocket science. Either you are reading stuff written by a 17-year old written on Twitter or whatever, or you are reading a whole study by, say, Mike Kofman, who spent a great deal of time to learn about war and Russia in particular, a respected expert in the field, who goes to Ukraine to the front line every few months, etc. His opinion would have different weight than that of a rando posting here (includes me, obviously) or elsewhere. Or Mark Galleotti, cited above, who spent his entire life learning Russian history, society, etc.

Then you also need to keep in mind that some of us have more knowledge than others due to personal experience, studying, etc. some of us also have friends/family in Ukraine and Russia, some might even be acting or retired military personnel.

Also, some of us are not suggesting who is winning. I think I said long ago, there are no winners here. Ukraine is the biggest loser here, regardless of one’s perspective. It is questionable that the country will exist in the long term due to demographic, economic, you name it catastrophic situation. Russia… we will see what happens, but clearly not a winner. Anyway.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

It was said above that conscripts can’t be used in war to their full degree but must sign a contract after a year if they want to stay fighting. This fellow says differently. So who to believe?

Whoever you want or none. Then look at the past experience, current reports, and draw your own conclusions. The only thing is one-sided propaganda screaming in your ear is not exactly helpful. The other thing is you need to be able to distinguish it, realize and acknowledge your biases, having previous experience and certain background surely helps. To follow both sides also helps.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

One Russia report says Sudzha has fallen to Ukraine. Another says fighting remains on the outskirts so it still hasn’t fallen.

That is why I said give it a week or two and the picture will clear up. At the end of the day, it is not that relevant unless one has a “rush” to find out, but then they are out of luck.

Most likely the place is not entirely controlled by anyone. Generally speaking, if there is active fighting and movement of troops from both sides of the conflict reported within a geographical area, that means that neither side has control over it. This is fairly trivial, but again, most of the time irrelevant.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

This Kursk front is huge and Russia has their work cut out for them. Some say Russia has a ton of reserves to move in without disturbing their current offensive lines. Other sources say troops and equipment from other front line areas are being move which suggests it’s false.

The truth is only one though. Any report can be wrong, sometimes and often enough intentionally. The only people reporting troop movement from the east are Ukrainian military and the American anonymous sources. Those who watch troop movement and have a pretty good idea where is what located, suggest this is not the case. They are extremely good at what they do. I will stick with the latter, but realize they could be wrong too.

At the end of the day, again, give it few weeks and see what happens. There will clearly be visible consequences for the front line. But all in time.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

It will be interesting to see in the long run which online sources are correct if any.

I believe some of us have been actually following long enough to know which ones are more likely to be correct.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

But Ukraine has taken it to Russia. Dealt a serious blow and have a textbook case of a successful counteract upsetting many pro Russian war folks.

Success is measured by the final result. Thus, time will tell and see my above post.

Overall, nothing posted here actually has any relevance at all, but for the discussion to be had. Who is wrong and who is right doesn’t matter at all. It has no effect on anything. Nothing will change, regardless of our posts. The war is fought there, in real life, people are dying and it will go on for a while yet. It sucks, but what are you going to do.

[32-40win]

Seems to me when Putin declared Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson and Crimeas as being Russian territory, he opened the door for conscripts to be used there, being as they have been fighting "on Russian territory" since then.

I've tried 2-3 times now to get Telegram to work on my PC, doesn't want to let me register. Don't want it on my phone, either, don't need stuff like that on there, too hard to read on a phone. Knocked the number of feeds on X down to a min, many that repost what other decent posters put up that let me access the bulk of them anyway. There are some good ones around on Substack, but, I am not spending the loot to read them, I just read the free ones, and haven't spent a bunch of time doing that either.

Fair pile of stuff going on over there, hard to say what Ukes think they can achieve. Hard to say what equipt they have in there altogether, and as Ryan says, what they can or can't afford to lose. Then there is the command structure in UAF, some good, some bad as in any army, he who makes the most mistakes loses. And the Russians are getting better at adapting, as time goes by.

They are hitting RU airbases again, hit 2 or 3 last nite, just how effective they are at that is a little questionable, thinking they'd be able to get better results with airburst cluster munitions on that count, but, appears they can't deploy that on drones, yet. I can sympathise with them lamenting the west's usage restrictions on some stuff, have to be careful with that even, as new supplies are limited.

There is some talk today of rail traffic from Moscow to Belarus being stopped temporarily, at least thru the Kursk region and Moscow region. Strikes me as a huge inconvenience for RU and Belarus, they can reroute it though.

Tough to say what equipt the US and others are willing to feed them at this point, and what the ukes can produce themselves, seems like they'll have to get thru this winter to be able to see any particular benefit of the west's arms mfg increases, and even that amount is somewhat questionable, as many mfgrs are apparently saying the orders have not come in to justify expanding yet. Probably a lot of new equipt being mulled over and older equipt being "abandoned" ,due to what they've seen in Ukraine and the middle east. Haven't seen them hitting munitions factories, training bases, in Moscow or satellite areas, whch some of the stuff they have could do, if allowed.

We'll have a better idea of what is what in another week or two, for better or worse. Is cool to watch the underdog lash out, at the moment, at least.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

No. They can be sent anywhere within Russia, but not outside the borders.


One thing to keep in mind is one need to realize what they are reading and who wrote it and for what purpose. This is not rocket science. Either you are reading stuff written by a 17-year old written on Twitter or whatever, or you are reading a whole study by, say, Mike Kofman, who spent a great deal of time to learn about war and Russia in particular, a respected expert in the field, who goes to Ukraine to the front line every few months, etc. His opinion would have different weight than that of a rando posting here (includes me, obviously) or elsewhere. Or Mark Galleotti, cited above, who spent his entire life learning Russian history, society, etc.

Then you also need to keep in mind that some of us have more knowledge than others due to personal experience, studying, etc. some of us also have friends/family in Ukraine and Russia, some might even be acting or retired military personnel.

Also, some of us are not suggesting who is winning. I think I said long ago, there are no winners here. Ukraine is the biggest loser here, regardless of one’s perspective. It is questionable that the country will exist in the long term due to demographic, economic, you name it catastrophic situation. Russia… we will see what happens, but clearly not a winner. Anyway.

People watching troop movements only have a portion of the info unless they have US satellite data or both sides detailed intel.

Whoever you want or none. Then look at the past experience, current reports, and draw your own conclusions. The only thing is one-sided propaganda screaming in your ear is not exactly helpful. The other thing is you need to be able to distinguish it, realize and acknowledge your biases, having previous experience and certain background surely helps. To follow both sides also helps.


That is why I said give it a week or two and the picture will clear up. At the end of the day, it is not that relevant unless one has a “rush” to find out, but then they are out of luck.

Most likely the place is not entirely controlled by anyone. Generally speaking, if there is active fighting and movement of troops from both sides of the conflict reported within a geographical area, that means that neither side has control over it. This is fairly trivial, but again, most of the time irrelevant.


The truth is only one though. Any report can be wrong, sometimes and often enough intentionally. The only people reporting troop movement from the east are Ukrainian military and the American anonymous sources. Those who watch troop movement and have a pretty good idea where is what located, suggest this is not the case. They are extremely good at what they do. I will stick with the latter, but realize they could be wrong too.

At the end of the day, again, give it few weeks and see what happens. There will clearly be visible consequences for the front line. But all in time.


I believe some of us have been actually following long enough to know which ones are more likely to be correct.


Success is measured by the final result. Thus, time will tell and see my above post.

Overall, nothing posted here actually has any relevance at all, but for the discussion to be had. Who is wrong and who is right doesn’t matter at all. It has no effect on anything. Nothing will change, regardless of our posts. The war is fought there, in real life, people are dying and it will go on for a while yet. It sucks, but what are you going to do.

I take everything with scepticism. After all it is war. News can be incorrect, misleading, straight up propaganda, delayed by days or more.

None of us are there nor at the table so anything really said is a guess.

However who am I to say the person reporting on where conscripts can go or not go is wrong. I can say absolutely none of us know for sure what Putin will or won’t do.

It was reported that conscripts died on the Moskva.

Let’s just hope Ukraine accomplishes what they need to do and that it furthers the end of the war with Russia leaving Ukraine.

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Talking moose

We have experts in covid, hockey, American politics, and war.
Heck we even have a couple members expert in all fields. lol.

Dibs on hockey!

How about those offer sheets hey!

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Dibs on hockey!

How about those offer sheets hey!

careful if mods catch you derailing threads.

- Derailing threads that are NOT in line with what the original intent of the OP post will not be tolerated. If you believe it to be important, please start a new thread.

[KGB]

Hey FISHNGUY, thanks for posting and a very informative analysis of the current situation. This is a very deep knowledge of what’s going on there. I have a few Ukrainian friends and I don’t think they know as much as you do even thou they are following what’s happening in their ex-home country.
Was talking to my buddy in Moscow yesterday and was bugging him saying that even Germans didn’t advanced that fast near Kursk during the Second World War. Told him that their army sucks now and useless. He said yes, everyone is very disappointed in what happened and people are peezzed off that the army commanders were so corrupt and have been selling out the military equipment ever since the fall of the ussr… He said these bastards can’t get enough…
So hopefully something might change but at the same time he said that Putin is holding to the power with no problems at all….

[sailor]

Finally CNN got the birth of the subject but the comments to the video give me hope that adequate people in the world will help us to destroy this cancer in society of our planet started by Lenin, Stalin and his KGB

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNH16A4f5Yk

[sailor]

Originally Posted by KGB

First of all, I don’t read Russian propaganda. I read this reports from Poland, Hungary, Chech republic and other former Soviet block countries. Google is your friend.
Second- I might dislike Putin and his team way more than you might ever know. Show me anywhere in my post history that I said that I like him or what he is doing.
Resolving to calling me names in Russian is just stupid and childish. I will simply ignore it.
Have nice day comrade.

Please accept my apologies!
My younger brother who is Sargent in Ukrainian National Guard 14 asault brigade went on mission and I a bit loosing when waiting for him come back for rotation
BTW Kharkiv is Ukraine because his famous special forces batalion "Jaguar" in 2014 kicked off Russians from Kharkiv who tried make it russian the same as Donetsk

https://t.me/jaguar1bop

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

careful if mods catch you derailing threads.

I'm being very, very sneaky.....

And I won't ban Moose for derailing.