Ukraine is taking the war to Russian territory

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by Scott h

That's what happens when the Ukrainians are finally given the nod to go ahead and use the weapons the west has supplied. For far too long they have been limited to fighting a defensive war because western powers have been scared of the crazy russians ramping up the war. Well guess what...the russians have proven that they don't have the man power, the ability, or the cash that they have been bragging about. If they even tried to ramp up the conflict any longer they will now find that they are vastly outclassed by surrounding well armed countries that remember all the years of russian abuse that they've been subjected to. It's time for the russian people to finally have a little taste of what they've been doing to their neighbours.

It's not what the Russian people have been doing to neighbors, it's what the Russian government has done. The people are just pawns, being used by their government , to promote other people's agendas. It's not a lot different than the situation here in North America, just like the Russian people, we do what our governments force us to do.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

It's not what the Russian people have been doing to neighbors, it's what the Russian government has done. The people are just pawns, being used by their government , to promote other people's agendas. It's not a lot different than the situation here in North America, just like the Russian people, we do what our governments force us to do.

When you have people who both agree, and defend their government and leader, they are in fact a HUGE part of the problem. Watching DW interview some russians that were living in the area that the Ukrainians now own, and they seemed both surprised and appalled that they would destroy their property, when they have been doing the exact thing to others for years. Pay backs a bitch.....

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by Scott h

When you have people who both agree, and defend their government and leader, they are in fact a HUGE part of the problem. Watching DW interview some russians that were living in the area that the Ukrainians now own, and they seemed both surprised and appalled that they would destroy their property, when they have been doing the exact thing to others for years. Pay backs a bitch.....

Some Russians will support their government, no matter what they do, and some oppose their government. It's no different in Canada, where some people still support Trudeau, despite the corruption, and what he has done to some Canadians, while other people oppose him.

[ruffy71]

Russia has about a hundred years of payback coming. I hope it all lands squarely on Putin’s head.

[KGB]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Some Russians will support their government, no matter what they do, and some oppose their government. It's no different in Canada, where some people still support Trudeau, despite the corruption, and what he has done to some Canadians, while other people oppose him.

Thanks Elk, that’s exactly what is currently happening there. I am in an often contact with a few friends in Moscow and couple of them are a strong Putin supporters but the majority are not. With the ban and prosecution of any anti war publishings and speeches, people are simply afraid for the retaliation- the memories of Gulag are still fresh….especially for the older generation that was growing up during the Soviet times. The younger crowd is the one that is still trying to rebel against the government especially at the beginning of the war but then Putin showed them the taste of gulag and now most of them went quiet…

[KGB]

Originally Posted by ruffy71

Russia has about a hundred years of payback coming. I hope it all lands squarely on Putin’s head.

I hope it will split his head wide open one day!

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by ruffy71

Russia has about a hundred years of payback coming. I hope it all lands squarely on Putin’s head.

Yes, and paybacks going to be a bitch. There are many countries surrounding russia that have increased their armed forces lately to deal with them as a group, and considering russias failure on the Ukrainian front alone, it doesn't look good for them.

[Sundancefisher]

Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, has accused Kyiv of “intimidating the peaceful population of Russia.”

https://www.euronews.com/2024/08/11/...ver-the-border

lol.
Ukraine has pushed 30 km into Russia and are digging trenches.

Russian military are not competent.

[6.5 shooter]

Putin fracked up, Soon the headlines will read China and N Korea liberate, their ancestral lands from the evil Cossacks. If only the guy had played nice in the sand box like he has for the last few years Russia would still be climbing he ladder to success. Turd'O should take notes and change his ways before it is to late here.

[fishnguy]

A few things I want to note here. First, some myths to get out of the way. This is a factual info that you can look for or not, either way.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Apparently the area was protected by conscripts. Conscripts with wealth family so they weren’t sent to the front.

There are no conscripts from wealthy families. Why? Because their kids are either bought the “exemption” for, or, which is mostly the case, are in universities and those kids do not get conscripted (note that I am completely ignoring those that are not even in Russia, but somewhere in the US, Europe, Canada, etc, namely “the west”). This is just how it works in Russia (and used to in Ukraine until recently, though those in “the west” are still there and bribery is just as developed). A fact of life, so to speak. Many universities have a so-called military department (just like biology, chemistry, etc departments). Those military courses used to be mandatory and are likely still in the relevant degrees/professions/what have you. Out of a university, provided it has this military department, if the person chooses to join military, they are enlisted (rather contracted, and it is a big difference) as officers of the lowest rank, ie junior lieutenants.

Furthermore, the Russian Ministry of Defence can do with conscripts as they see fit. Except that these guys cannot be sent for wars outside of Russia. That is, there are no conscripts in Ukraine, or any other war/operation/call it what you will outside of Russia, literally. Not because of some rubbish theory posted on the internet, but because of the Russian laws and how things work in Russia. This is a fact, not some made up stuff from the internet.

These guys - the conscripts - serve all kinds of functions while training (lots of the training is mediocre to say the least, but to keep in my mind that some conscripts end up in VDV, which are very capable units, as well as special forces later in service, those that are capable). This includes protecting the borders, learning to use the air defences, tanks, digging trenches, etc. Basically, it depends on where or rather what “department” of the military one is assigned to. No one gets to choose (unless someone slides some money in). It is the medical examination and physical capabilities that generally decide who goes where. Regardless, none of those 18-year olds are sent to Ukraine (or Syria, for example).

So the theory of these guys being special because they come from rich families and hence weren’t sent to Ukraine to the front has nothing to do with reality.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

These kids will be a huge trading commodity to get Ukraine soldiers home in a prisoner swap.

This is obviously not true simply due to what I wrote above. The kids will a be a trading commodity because they are kids and the future. This is clear. And they will be a trading commodity for exchanges, as there were previously.

At the same time your statement implies that the Russians have a lot more stock (ie Ukrainian prisoners of war) to trade than does Ukraine. And this is true.

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

At the same time the Russian prisoners are going to get slammed at home for giving up and surrendering so quickly.

This is obviously not true because nothing more was expected of them. I mean what would one expect? This simply doesn’t happen. I am mot sure what some of the people are reading.

The reality of what happened was that these poorly trained conscripts were assigned to the border that was invaded by the most competent and battle capable Ukrainian units. So they didn’t have a chance against them. Hence they surrendered, which was the best decision they could have done. To think that they will be prosecuted for it is pretty crazy.

Overall, I am not sure what you guys are watching and reading. I would suggest moving your attention away from reddit and reading/listening to actual analysis of people who understand what they are talking about. Lots of stuff written in this thread has nothing to do with reality.

Here is what is actually happening, very briefly:

Ukraine pulled their most capable units from Donetsk and Kharkiv directions and sent them to invade the Kursk region. Some were pulled on a short notice, less than 24 hours before the operation began (many such were already pulled from Zaporozhie front when Russians opened the Kharkiv front and basically did the same thing Ukrainians have done in Kursk). These units were organized so that some were highly mobile, in other words operating in civilian vehicles, motorcycles, etc, in small groups. These groups were followed by still mobile, but slower and larger groups, who brought armour and equipment. While the former were making the appearance of a deep penetration and control of a huge Russian territory (by releasing content, such as videos and photos for the “experts” to be geolocated), the actual brigades with armour were moving in much slower and fighting their way through, establishing actual control of the territory. These troops took pretty significant casualties, but still had an upper hand over the, at the time, disorganized Russians, yet far from what is claimed by the “experts”. For instance, the “experts” claimed Ukraine to be fully controlling Sudzha and way beyond. Now that the reality is starting to settle in, rather revealed, apparently they only control the western part of it, while north, east, and south is likely controlled by the Russians. These Ukrainian forces are also no longer moving forward, but establishing defensive positions (in my opinion a mistake because withdrawal would make a lot more sense).

So… Essentially they now occupied some mostly irrelevant Russian territory (tactically and strategically). They took out (at least some of) their best fighters to do so. They extended the landmass they now need to defend (call it hold). In the meantime, Russians haven’t pulled much from the front line to respond to Kursk (some from Kharkiv, I believe), but used the reserves (that Ukraine is lacking) to stabilize the situation (which is still not fully under control, from my understanding). The front in Donetsk direction is still in critical situation and getting progressively worse (many call it collapsing). Russians are taking ground in Zaporozhie: Rabotino, that Ukrainian commanders sacrificed so many lives for is now basically fully under control of the Russians and they are closer to Orikhiv than they were before the great counteroffensive of summer 2023.

It appears, if Russians choose to fully stabilize the situation in Kursk and let the Ukrainian forces sit there and occupy (providing supply lines alone is a heck of a task), while pounding them with artillery, but most notably the gliding bombs, while at the same time continuing their operations in the east and south, this great adventure organized by the Ukrainian command is going to be an epic failure. The best thing they can hope for now is Russia starting to use an unreasonable amount of force to liberate the now occupied territories (this is what Ukraine did in Kharkiv region, by the way, and you can see how it is working out for them).

Another subject I saw mentioned was the gas pipelines and North Stream in particular. One thing to note, Russia had decreased the supply of gas to Europe via that route to the minimum before the explosions. That was done partially under false pretences in order to have leverage over Europe which was in the middle of the most severe energy crisis, spending something like 800 billion dollars in subsidies trying to contain the situation (this includes the EU and the UK). Some of the reasons for the decreased supply were very real though. For example, a turbine that was rebuilt in Canada and Canada was refusing to send it back to Russia in order to somewhat restore the supplies of blue fuel. At the, basically, begging of Europe and Germany in particular, Canada finally agreed to send the turbine to Germany mid August of 2022, which was supposed to deliver it to Russia. Before that ever happened, there was an explosion and the entire network became a pile of metal deep under water sometime in September of the same year. At the very moment when the explosives detonated, Russia lost all the leverage they had over Europe. Well, not all, obviously, but the biggest economic lever they had in their possession. I am going to wrap this part up by saying that insisting that Russia blew up the pipeline they spent tens of billions of dollars on lobbying and building is either having a complete lack of understanding of how things work or completely lacking information about the events that took place.

Now very briefly about the Sudzha gas metering station that Ukraine now (maybe) controls. This was reported as a great success by some “experts”. Well, the entire pipeline that is extending from that station (aside from a dozen or two kilometres still in the territory of Russia) lies through Ukraine until it hits Europe. Not only Ukraine has control of the supply of gas via that pipe, they are also collecting about 800 million dollars in transit fees from that pipe alone every year (the total collection of transit fees from all Russian gas and oil transported to Europe through the territory of Ukraine is still about $2 billion annually and if one understands the particulars and totals of the Ukrainian budget, they can conclude how much this money means to Ukraine). Furthermore, this is the very pipeline that Ukraine was stealing gas from for their own needs due to lack of funds to pay for their own numerous times. I don’t recall the particular years, but going to say 2006, 2009, and 2011, in addition to other minor violations. Anyway, gaining control of something is usually greatly beneficial; pretending to gain control of something you already fully control and greatly benefit from is… well. But hey, signing kumbaya and dancing without seeing the full picture is also acceptable.

Many more things to say and comment on in this thread, but not many really care, and, most importantly, it ain’t going to change a thing. So good night and good week ahead to all.

[BuckCuller]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

A few things I want to note here. First, some myths to get out of the way. This is a factual info that you can look for or not, either way.


There are no conscripts from wealthy families. Why? Because their kids are either bought the “exemption” for, or, which is mostly the case, are in universities and those kids do not get conscripted (note that I am completely ignoring those that are not even in Russia, but somewhere in the US, Europe, Canada, etc, namely “the west”). This is just how it works in Russia (and used to in Ukraine until recently, though those in “the west” are still there and bribery is just as developed). A fact of life, so to speak. Many universities have a so-called military department (just like biology, chemistry, etc departments). Those military courses used to be mandatory and are likely still in the relevant degrees/professions/what have you. Out of a university, provided it has this military department, if the person chooses to join military, they are enlisted (rather contracted, and it is a big difference) as officers of the lowest rank, ie junior lieutenants.

Furthermore, the Russian Ministry of Defence can do with conscripts as they see fit. Except that these guys cannot be sent for wars outside of Russia. That is, there are no conscripts in Ukraine, or any other war/operation/call it what you will outside of Russia, literally. Not because of some rubbish theory posted on the internet, but because of the Russian laws and how things work in Russia. This is a fact, not some made up stuff from the internet.

These guys - the conscripts - serve all kinds of functions while training (lots of the training is mediocre to say the least, but to keep in my mind that some conscripts end up in VDV, which are very capable units, as well as special forces later in service, those that are capable). This includes protecting the borders, learning to use the air defences, tanks, digging trenches, etc. Basically, it depends on where or rather what “department” of the military one is assigned to. No one gets to choose (unless someone slides some money in). It is the medical examination and physical capabilities that generally decide who goes where. Regardless, none of those 18-year olds are sent to Ukraine (or Syria, for example).

So the theory of these guys being special because they come from rich families and hence weren’t sent to Ukraine to the front has nothing to do with reality.


This is obviously not true simply due to what I wrote above. The kids will a be a trading commodity because they are kids and the future. This is clear. And they will be a trading commodity for exchanges, as there were previously.

At the same time your statement implies that the Russians have a lot more stock (ie Ukrainian prisoners of war) to trade than does Ukraine. And this is true.


This is obviously not true because nothing more was expected of them. I mean what would one expect? This simply doesn’t happen. I am mot sure what some of the people are reading.

The reality of what happened was that these poorly trained conscripts were assigned to the border that was invaded by the most competent and battle capable Ukrainian units. So they didn’t have a chance against them. Hence they surrendered, which was the best decision they could have done. To think that they will be prosecuted for it is pretty crazy.

Overall, I am not sure what you guys are watching and reading. I would suggest moving your attention away from reddit and reading/listening to actual analysis of people who understand what they are talking about. Lots of stuff written in this thread has nothing to do with reality.

Here is what is actually happening, very briefly:

Ukraine pulled their most capable units from Donetsk and Kharkiv directions and sent them to invade the Kursk region. Some were pulled on a short notice, less than 24 hours before the operation began (many such were already pulled from Zaporozhie front when Russians opened the Kharkiv front and basically did the same thing Ukrainians have done in Kursk). These units were organized so that some were highly mobile, in other words operating in civilian vehicles, motorcycles, etc, in small groups. These groups were followed by still mobile, but slower and larger groups, who brought armour and equipment. While the former were making the appearance of a deep penetration and control of a huge Russian territory (by releasing content, such as videos and photos for the “experts” to be geolocated), the actual brigades with armour were moving in much slower and fighting their way through, establishing actual control of the territory. These troops took pretty significant casualties, but still had an upper hand over the, at the time, disorganized Russians, yet far from what is claimed by the “experts”. For instance, the “experts” claimed Ukraine to be fully controlling Sudzha and way beyond. Now that the reality is starting to settle in, rather revealed, apparently they only control the western part of it, while north, east, and south is likely controlled by the Russians. These Ukrainian forces are also no longer moving forward, but establishing defensive positions (in my opinion a mistake because withdrawal would make a lot more sense).

So… Essentially they now occupied some mostly irrelevant Russian territory (tactically and strategically). They took out (at least some of) their best fighters to do so. They extended the landmass they now need to defend (call it hold). In the meantime, Russians haven’t pulled much from the front line to respond to Kursk (some from Kharkiv, I believe), but used the reserves (that Ukraine is lacking) to stabilize the situation (which is still not fully under control, from my understanding). The front in Donetsk direction is still in critical situation and getting progressively worse (many call it collapsing). Russians are taking ground in Zaporozhie: Rabotino, that Ukrainian commanders sacrificed so many lives for is now basically fully under control of the Russians and they are closer to Orikhiv than they were before the great counteroffensive of summer 2023.

It appears, if Russians choose to fully stabilize the situation in Kursk and let the Ukrainian forces sit there and occupy (providing supply lines alone is a heck of a task), while pounding them with artillery, but most notably the gliding bombs, while at the same time continuing their operations in the east and south, this great adventure organized by the Ukrainian command is going to be an epic failure. The best thing they can hope for now is Russia starting to use an unreasonable amount of force to liberate the now occupied territories (this is what Ukraine did in Kharkiv region, by the way, and you can see how it is working out for them).

Another subject I saw mentioned was the gas pipelines and North Stream in particular. One thing to note, Russia had decreased the supply of gas to Europe via that route to the minimum before the explosions. That was done partially under false pretences in order to have leverage over Europe which was in the middle of the most severe energy crisis, spending something like 800 billion dollars in subsidies trying to contain the situation (this includes the EU and the UK). Some of the reasons for the decreased supply were very real though. For example, a turbine that was rebuilt in Canada and Canada was refusing to send it back to Russia in order to somewhat restore the supplies of blue fuel. At the, basically, begging of Europe and Germany in particular, Canada finally agreed to send the turbine to Germany mid August of 2022, which was supposed to deliver it to Russia. Before that ever happened, there was an explosion and the entire network became a pile of metal deep under water sometime in September of the same year. At the very moment when the explosives detonated, Russia lost all the leverage they had over Europe. Well, not all, obviously, but the biggest economic lever they had in their possession. I am going to wrap this part up by saying that insisting that Russia blew up the pipeline they spent tens of billions of dollars on lobbying and building is either having a complete lack of understanding of how things work or completely lacking information about the events that took place.

Now very briefly about the Sudzha gas metering station that Ukraine now (maybe) controls. This was reported as a great success by some “experts”. Well, the entire pipeline that is extending from that station (aside from a dozen or two kilometres still in the territory of Russia) lies through Ukraine until it hits Europe. Not only Ukraine has control of the supply of gas via that pipe, they are also collecting about 800 million dollars in transit fees from that pipe alone every year (the total collection of transit fees from all Russian gas and oil transported to Europe through the territory of Ukraine is still about $2 billion annually and if one understands the particulars and totals of the Ukrainian budget, they can conclude how much this money means to Ukraine). Furthermore, this is the very pipeline that Ukraine was stealing gas from for their own needs due to lack of funds to pay for their own numerous times. I don’t recall the particular years, but going to say 2006, 2009, and 2011, in addition to other minor violations. Anyway, gaining control of something is usually greatly beneficial; pretending to gain control of something you already fully control and greatly benefit from is… well. But hey, signing kumbaya and dancing without seeing the full picture is also acceptable.

Many more things to say and comment on in this thread, but not many really care, and, most importantly, it ain’t going to change a thing. So good night and good week ahead to all.

All I have to say is this was very thought out, well researched and written. This push into Russian territory is nothing more than a moral boosting mission and to gain more weapons and support from the west. It does nothing really in the way of winning the war. It sounds like they took well needed resources from where they needed them for this mission.

[Sundancefisher]

lexei Smirnov, the governor of Russia’s Kursk region, has told President Vladimir Putin that six days of the Ukrainian ground attack on his region had resulted in the loss of control over 28 settlements, 12 civilian deaths and displacement of 121,000 people.
Putin has promised “a worthy response” to the Ukrainian efforts to undermine Russia’s stability.
A new evacuation order has been issued in Russia’s Belgorod region as its Krasnaya Yaruga district fears an incursion by Ukrainian forces, according to Vyacheslav Gladkov, the regional governor.
In the neighbouring Russian region of Kursk, residents of the Belovsky district have been urged to leave “independently”, with the head of the area, Nikolai Volobuyev, warning of a “very tense situation”.

Been a good push so far.

Conscripts are worth far more in negotiations for Putin.

In the past, deaths of conscripts caused the mothers to mobilize and help end the war.

Putin has been careful about how he uses conscripts.

Now that a number of them have been captured and / or killed… it may change the politics of the war in Russia. Not to mention losing territory.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

A few things I want to note here. First, some myths to get out of the way. This is a factual info that you can look for or not, either way.


There are no conscripts from wealthy families. Why? Because their kids are either bought the “exemption” for, or, which is mostly the case, are in universities and those kids do not get conscripted (note that I am completely ignoring those that are not even in Russia, but somewhere in the US, Europe, Canada, etc, namely “the west”). This is just how it works in Russia (and used to in Ukraine until recently, though those in “the west” are still there and bribery is just as developed). A fact of life, so to speak. Many universities have a so-called military department (just like biology, chemistry, etc departments). Those military courses used to be mandatory and are likely still in the relevant degrees/professions/what have you. Out of a university, provided it has this military department, if the person chooses to join military, they are enlisted (rather contracted, and it is a big difference) as officers of the lowest rank, ie junior lieutenants.

Furthermore, the Russian Ministry of Defence can do with conscripts as they see fit. Except that these guys cannot be sent for wars outside of Russia. That is, there are no conscripts in Ukraine, or any other war/operation/call it what you will outside of Russia, literally. Not because of some rubbish theory posted on the internet, but because of the Russian laws and how things work in Russia. This is a fact, not some made up stuff from the internet.

These guys - the conscripts - serve all kinds of functions while training (lots of the training is mediocre to say the least, but to keep in my mind that some conscripts end up in VDV, which are very capable units, as well as special forces later in service, those that are capable). This includes protecting the borders, learning to use the air defences, tanks, digging trenches, etc. Basically, it depends on where or rather what “department” of the military one is assigned to. No one gets to choose (unless someone slides some money in). It is the medical examination and physical capabilities that generally decide who goes where. Regardless, none of those 18-year olds are sent to Ukraine (or Syria, for example).

So the theory of these guys being special because they come from rich families and hence weren’t sent to Ukraine to the front has nothing to do with reality.


This is obviously not true simply due to what I wrote above. The kids will a be a trading commodity because they are kids and the future. This is clear. And they will be a trading commodity for exchanges, as there were previously.

At the same time your statement implies that the Russians have a lot more stock (ie Ukrainian prisoners of war) to trade than does Ukraine. And this is true.


This is obviously not true because nothing more was expected of them. I mean what would one expect? This simply doesn’t happen. I am mot sure what some of the people are reading.

The reality of what happened was that these poorly trained conscripts were assigned to the border that was invaded by the most competent and battle capable Ukrainian units. So they didn’t have a chance against them. Hence they surrendered, which was the best decision they could have done. To think that they will be prosecuted for it is pretty crazy.

Overall, I am not sure what you guys are watching and reading. I would suggest moving your attention away from reddit and reading/listening to actual analysis of people who understand what they are talking about. Lots of stuff written in this thread has nothing to do with reality.

Here is what is actually happening, very briefly:

Ukraine pulled their most capable units from Donetsk and Kharkiv directions and sent them to invade the Kursk region. Some were pulled on a short notice, less than 24 hours before the operation began (many such were already pulled from Zaporozhie front when Russians opened the Kharkiv front and basically did the same thing Ukrainians have done in Kursk). These units were organized so that some were highly mobile, in other words operating in civilian vehicles, motorcycles, etc, in small groups. These groups were followed by still mobile, but slower and larger groups, who brought armour and equipment. While the former were making the appearance of a deep penetration and control of a huge Russian territory (by releasing content, such as videos and photos for the “experts” to be geolocated), the actual brigades with armour were moving in much slower and fighting their way through, establishing actual control of the territory. These troops took pretty significant casualties, but still had an upper hand over the, at the time, disorganized Russians, yet far from what is claimed by the “experts”. For instance, the “experts” claimed Ukraine to be fully controlling Sudzha and way beyond. Now that the reality is starting to settle in, rather revealed, apparently they only control the western part of it, while north, east, and south is likely controlled by the Russians. These Ukrainian forces are also no longer moving forward, but establishing defensive positions (in my opinion a mistake because withdrawal would make a lot more sense).

So… Essentially they now occupied some mostly irrelevant Russian territory (tactically and strategically). They took out (at least some of) their best fighters to do so. They extended the landmass they now need to defend (call it hold). In the meantime, Russians haven’t pulled much from the front line to respond to Kursk (some from Kharkiv, I believe), but used the reserves (that Ukraine is lacking) to stabilize the situation (which is still not fully under control, from my understanding). The front in Donetsk direction is still in critical situation and getting progressively worse (many call it collapsing). Russians are taking ground in Zaporozhie: Rabotino, that Ukrainian commanders sacrificed so many lives for is now basically fully under control of the Russians and they are closer to Orikhiv than they were before the great counteroffensive of summer 2023.

It appears, if Russians choose to fully stabilize the situation in Kursk and let the Ukrainian forces sit there and occupy (providing supply lines alone is a heck of a task), while pounding them with artillery, but most notably the gliding bombs, while at the same time continuing their operations in the east and south, this great adventure organized by the Ukrainian command is going to be an epic failure. The best thing they can hope for now is Russia starting to use an unreasonable amount of force to liberate the now occupied territories (this is what Ukraine did in Kharkiv region, by the way, and you can see how it is working out for them).

Another subject I saw mentioned was the gas pipelines and North Stream in particular. One thing to note, Russia had decreased the supply of gas to Europe via that route to the minimum before the explosions. That was done partially under false pretences in order to have leverage over Europe which was in the middle of the most severe energy crisis, spending something like 800 billion dollars in subsidies trying to contain the situation (this includes the EU and the UK). Some of the reasons for the decreased supply were very real though. For example, a turbine that was rebuilt in Canada and Canada was refusing to send it back to Russia in order to somewhat restore the supplies of blue fuel. At the, basically, begging of Europe and Germany in particular, Canada finally agreed to send the turbine to Germany mid August of 2022, which was supposed to deliver it to Russia. Before that ever happened, there was an explosion and the entire network became a pile of metal deep under water sometime in September of the same year. At the very moment when the explosives detonated, Russia lost all the leverage they had over Europe. Well, not all, obviously, but the biggest economic lever they had in their possession. I am going to wrap this part up by saying that insisting that Russia blew up the pipeline they spent tens of billions of dollars on lobbying and building is either having a complete lack of understanding of how things work or completely lacking information about the events that took place.

Now very briefly about the Sudzha gas metering station that Ukraine now (maybe) controls. This was reported as a great success by some “experts”. Well, the entire pipeline that is extending from that station (aside from a dozen or two kilometres still in the territory of Russia) lies through Ukraine until it hits Europe. Not only Ukraine has control of the supply of gas via that pipe, they are also collecting about 800 million dollars in transit fees from that pipe alone every year (the total collection of transit fees from all Russian gas and oil transported to Europe through the territory of Ukraine is still about $2 billion annually and if one understands the particulars and totals of the Ukrainian budget, they can conclude how much this money means to Ukraine). Furthermore, this is the very pipeline that Ukraine was stealing gas from for their own needs due to lack of funds to pay for their own numerous times. I don’t recall the particular years, but going to say 2006, 2009, and 2011, in addition to other minor violations. Anyway, gaining control of something is usually greatly beneficial; pretending to gain control of something you already fully control and greatly benefit from is… well. But hey, signing kumbaya and dancing without seeing the full picture is also acceptable.

Many more things to say and comment on in this thread, but not many really care, and, most importantly, it ain’t going to change a thing. So good night and good week ahead to all.

Thanks.

Was hoping you’d chime in.

It appears while conscripts can’t be sent to wars outside of Russia… they can be sent to the defacto front lines but on the Russian side of the border.

It appears that after one year of being a conscript they are considered servicemen after that and can be deployed to the front. The conscripts have great value as mothers in Russia have mobilized in the past against conscripts used in the Afghan and Chechnya wars.

Neither side is saying exactly where the control boundary lies however Russian media has reported heavy fighting on the outskirts of Sudzha. It appears for all intents and purposes… Sudzha is control by Ukraine… but for how long is anyone’s guess. Can you link to your source?

Is Russia going to use the same bomb and raze and scorch everything policy if it’s their own land? Will be interesting to see.

Ukraine does appear to have some of their best fighters and equipment and air support in this push… which could mean Russia needs to move their best over in response. I would suspect reservists will continue to surrender once put under the gun.

Russia has been making slow progress on the Ukraine front albeit with heavy loses. Ukraine sadly takes loses also but the Russian meat grinder takes a heavy toll on Russian troops.

If as you say the Ukrainians dig in then glide bombs are an issue. Saw on the reports that Ukraine supposedly blew up over 700 at an airbase. It was on Reddit. Not glide bombs names specifically but it seems to make sense given the location.

Will Ukraine pull back or push forward? Hard to tell what their core strategy is. Only they really know at the moment and strategy may be multi leveled.

As for the metering station? Maybe they can crank the taps on and erase the info on throughout. Maybe EU is going to get some free gas. No love lost to capturing anything Russian as they have stolen so much from Ukraine.

All the Russian talk about a big response back… hmmm. Russia has attacked hospitals, schools, apartments, restaurants, malls, energy infrastructure. They bomb civilians all the time.

If only Ukraine had the same population as Russia… the country would be unified unified with Zelenskyy as leader and Putin in the gulag.

As for if Russia chose to stabilize the situation in Kurst… they obviously want to… it’s not a matter of choosing… it’s a matter of strategy and logistical and military competence.

Once they get their brains working… they will eventually get to a position where they can stabilize. But maybe Ukraine does something else.

Russian command and control structure is entirely laughable. The skill of their troops is laughable with the exception of a few areas of battle hardened fighters.

We will have to wait and see what happens next. Ukraine is being very secret and Russia is clueless at the moment.

[32-40win]

Seems to me that the reason Putin isn't allowing the SMO to be publicly called a war, is because of the conscript laws, not willing to enact the draft, and not wanting to upset the St Petersburgh and Moscow crowds who support him. Plenty of examples of the "we won't send conscripts to Ukraine as per the laws" being BS too. There are apparently a pile of people who haven't been paid for the "contracts" that folk in their familes signed up for as well. Various reports say a lot of the folk who surrendered were FSB internal security "troops", who maybe have some SWAT type training, but who are really little else other than police.

[Sundancefisher]

lol

Putin had to tell the army to “dislodge “ the enemy.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/...er-area-a86000

[32-40win]

Bit of a chuckle on this one from Nexta;

Lukashenka is preparing the ground for leaving office?

Belarus plans to introduce a new article in the Criminal Code - on violence or threats to the former president and members of his family.

#Lukashenka personally introduced the bill to the Parliament.

We remind, recently the Belarusian dictator said that Belarusians should "get used to the fact that there will be another president."
--------------------------------
I do wonder how hard it'd be to persuade the Belarus tankies that have been deployed to the Uke border to come across the border to donate their tanks to a worthy cause.
----------------------------------

And then there is an interesting twist involved on taking Suzdha, the UAF has gained direct access to to the RU rail system computers, wonder if Budanov knows someone who could possibly do something with that......

[Sundancefisher]

Another great summary of what’s happening.

https://youtu.be/ILsdO91pPuc?feature=shared


So many balls juggling.

So many Russian generals juggling their balls hoping they don’t have a stair accident.

[32-40win]

Thinking one thing he didn't really mention in the vid was pushing the RU out of artillery range of Kharkiv, which they were apparently very close to having once again, which would include all the 40-50km range rockets etc. It'll also be a bit of a fickle finger of fate to Orban politically, one chart shown says the Hungarian exports to Kazakhstan increased something like 3400%, and you know where that stuff wound up.
There are a few shots of Uke Migs running missions into Russia appearing, possibly enabled by previous ops in the area knocking out some AA & radars & elec substation sites in the Oblasts along there. Still at treetops level, but, they are apparently running them in there.

Putin being the dictator, (he does look disgusted), shutting down the Kursk governor on giving out info;
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823044322780193270

[KGB]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

A few things I want to note here. First, some myths to get out of the way. This is a factual info that you can look for or not, either way.


There are no conscripts from wealthy families. Why? Because their kids are either bought the “exemption” for, or, which is mostly the case, are in universities and those kids do not get conscripted (note that I am completely ignoring those that are not even in Russia, but somewhere in the US, Europe, Canada, etc, namely “the west”). This is just how it works in Russia (and used to in Ukraine until recently, though those in “the west” are still there and bribery is just as developed). A fact of life, so to speak. Many universities have a so-called military department (just like biology, chemistry, etc departments). Those military courses used to be mandatory and are likely still in the relevant degrees/professions/what have you. Out of a university, provided it has this military department, if the person chooses to join military, they are enlisted (rather contracted, and it is a big difference) as officers of the lowest rank, ie junior lieutenants.

Furthermore, the Russian Ministry of Defence can do with conscripts as they see fit. Except that these guys cannot be sent for wars outside of Russia. That is, there are no conscripts in Ukraine, or any other war/operation/call it what you will outside of Russia, literally. Not because of some rubbish theory posted on the internet, but because of the Russian laws and how things work in Russia. This is a fact, not some made up stuff from the internet.

These guys - the conscripts - serve all kinds of functions while training (lots of the training is mediocre to say the least, but to keep in my mind that some conscripts end up in VDV, which are very capable units, as well as special forces later in service, those that are capable). This includes protecting the borders, learning to use the air defences, tanks, digging trenches, etc. Basically, it depends on where or rather what “department” of the military one is assigned to. No one gets to choose (unless someone slides some money in). It is the medical examination and physical capabilities that generally decide who goes where. Regardless, none of those 18-year olds are sent to Ukraine (or Syria, for example).

So the theory of these guys being special because they come from rich families and hence weren’t sent to Ukraine to the front has nothing to do with reality.


This is obviously not true simply due to what I wrote above. The kids will a be a trading commodity because they are kids and the future. This is clear. And they will be a trading commodity for exchanges, as there were previously.

At the same time your statement implies that the Russians have a lot more stock (ie Ukrainian prisoners of war) to trade than does Ukraine. And this is true.


This is obviously not true because nothing more was expected of them. I mean what would one expect? This simply doesn’t happen. I am mot sure what some of the people are reading.

The reality of what happened was that these poorly trained conscripts were assigned to the border that was invaded by the most competent and battle capable Ukrainian units. So they didn’t have a chance against them. Hence they surrendered, which was the best decision they could have done. To think that they will be prosecuted for it is pretty crazy.

Overall, I am not sure what you guys are watching and reading. I would suggest moving your attention away from reddit and reading/listening to actual analysis of people who understand what they are talking about. Lots of stuff written in this thread has nothing to do with reality.

Here is what is actually happening, very briefly:

Ukraine pulled their most capable units from Donetsk and Kharkiv directions and sent them to invade the Kursk region. Some were pulled on a short notice, less than 24 hours before the operation began (many such were already pulled from Zaporozhie front when Russians opened the Kharkiv front and basically did the same thing Ukrainians have done in Kursk). These units were organized so that some were highly mobile, in other words operating in civilian vehicles, motorcycles, etc, in small groups. These groups were followed by still mobile, but slower and larger groups, who brought armour and equipment. While the former were making the appearance of a deep penetration and control of a huge Russian territory (by releasing content, such as videos and photos for the “experts” to be geolocated), the actual brigades with armour were moving in much slower and fighting their way through, establishing actual control of the territory. These troops took pretty significant casualties, but still had an upper hand over the, at the time, disorganized Russians, yet far from what is claimed by the “experts”. For instance, the “experts” claimed Ukraine to be fully controlling Sudzha and way beyond. Now that the reality is starting to settle in, rather revealed, apparently they only control the western part of it, while north, east, and south is likely controlled by the Russians. These Ukrainian forces are also no longer moving forward, but establishing defensive positions (in my opinion a mistake because withdrawal would make a lot more sense).

So… Essentially they now occupied some mostly irrelevant Russian territory (tactically and strategically). They took out (at least some of) their best fighters to do so. They extended the landmass they now need to defend (call it hold). In the meantime, Russians haven’t pulled much from the front line to respond to Kursk (some from Kharkiv, I believe), but used the reserves (that Ukraine is lacking) to stabilize the situation (which is still not fully under control, from my understanding). The front in Donetsk direction is still in critical situation and getting progressively worse (many call it collapsing). Russians are taking ground in Zaporozhie: Rabotino, that Ukrainian commanders sacrificed so many lives for is now basically fully under control of the Russians and they are closer to Orikhiv than they were before the great counteroffensive of summer 2023.

It appears, if Russians choose to fully stabilize the situation in Kursk and let the Ukrainian forces sit there and occupy (providing supply lines alone is a heck of a task), while pounding them with artillery, but most notably the gliding bombs, while at the same time continuing their operations in the east and south, this great adventure organized by the Ukrainian command is going to be an epic failure. The best thing they can hope for now is Russia starting to use an unreasonable amount of force to liberate the now occupied territories (this is what Ukraine did in Kharkiv region, by the way, and you can see how it is working out for them).

Another subject I saw mentioned was the gas pipelines and North Stream in particular. One thing to note, Russia had decreased the supply of gas to Europe via that route to the minimum before the explosions. That was done partially under false pretences in order to have leverage over Europe which was in the middle of the most severe energy crisis, spending something like 800 billion dollars in subsidies trying to contain the situation (this includes the EU and the UK). Some of the reasons for the decreased supply were very real though. For example, a turbine that was rebuilt in Canada and Canada was refusing to send it back to Russia in order to somewhat restore the supplies of blue fuel. At the, basically, begging of Europe and Germany in particular, Canada finally agreed to send the turbine to Germany mid August of 2022, which was supposed to deliver it to Russia. Before that ever happened, there was an explosion and the entire network became a pile of metal deep under water sometime in September of the same year. At the very moment when the explosives detonated, Russia lost all the leverage they had over Europe. Well, not all, obviously, but the biggest economic lever they had in their possession. I am going to wrap this part up by saying that insisting that Russia blew up the pipeline they spent tens of billions of dollars on lobbying and building is either having a complete lack of understanding of how things work or completely lacking information about the events that took place.

Now very briefly about the Sudzha gas metering station that Ukraine now (maybe) controls. This was reported as a great success by some “experts”. Well, the entire pipeline that is extending from that station (aside from a dozen or two kilometres still in the territory of Russia) lies through Ukraine until it hits Europe. Not only Ukraine has control of the supply of gas via that pipe, they are also collecting about 800 million dollars in transit fees from that pipe alone every year (the total collection of transit fees from all Russian gas and oil transported to Europe through the territory of Ukraine is still about $2 billion annually and if one understands the particulars and totals of the Ukrainian budget, they can conclude how much this money means to Ukraine). Furthermore, this is the very pipeline that Ukraine was stealing gas from for their own needs due to lack of funds to pay for their own numerous times. I don’t recall the particular years, but going to say 2006, 2009, and 2011, in addition to other minor violations. Anyway, gaining control of something is usually greatly beneficial; pretending to gain control of something you already fully control and greatly benefit from is… well. But hey, signing kumbaya and dancing without seeing the full picture is also acceptable.

Many more things to say and comment on in this thread, but not many really care, and, most importantly, it ain’t going to change a thing. So good night and good week ahead to all.

Comrade! That is some serious insider information right here! Only certain people know that, especially about the military departments at some universities…. When did they drop you off here?
On a serious note- that’s is exactly what’s going on there right now according to my information also. The last telegram from Kremlin didn’t sound all that positive, lol!

[Wolftrapper]

Either way, Russia looks pathetic and is a joke to most of the world.

Not a great time in history to be a Russian.

[32-40win]

Some interesting observations on Russian C&C under Putin;


Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Russia begins its response to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Multiple ministries are involved and the command structure is still forming. Someone in Ukraine knew what they were doing and exploited a weak seam in Russian C2. A few important issues to watch:

Russia has declared its defense operation to be a "counter-terrorist operation" (KTO in Russian). This is a domestic operation and the FSB and Rosgvardia have roles along with the military. This is what the war in Chechnya was called from 1999 until it ended./2

Putin has instructed the FSB (+ its border troops) and Rosgvardia to defend the borders and assist this operation. He also told the military today that their main task is driving out Ukrainian forces from Russian territory and countering Ukrainian recon and sabotage groups /3

Who is responsible for what in Kursk? FSB Border troops and Rosgvardia have responsibility for the border and ensuring its defense. For the military: Kursk is located in Moscow Military District, but the troops forward deployed IVO Ukraine belong to the Leningrad MD. /4

Who is responsible for what in Kursk? FSB Border troops and Rosgvardia have responsibility for the border and ensuring its defense. For the military: Kursk is located in Moscow Military District, but the troops forward deployed IVO Ukraine belong to the Leningrad MD. /4

Status-6 (Military & Conflict News)
@Archer83Able
·
May 15
Russia: Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin was appointed as the commander of the Leningrad Military District, while Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev will become the commander of the Moscow Military District.

The Operational Group of Forces North received a name change and upgrade about 1-2 weeks before it attacked Kharkiv in May. Prior to May it was a territorial defense group. So for the past 3 months it's been transitioning from a defensive to offensive orientation, meaning /6

that this Russian Op Group was much weaker than the others: from May - Aug it had a major reorganization, a new commander, and attacked Kharkiv early. It's MOD units are now bogged down in Kharkiv and that offensive is not making progress. / 7

Someone in Ukraine knew where to press. The AFU attacked a weak spot (Kursk) of the weakest Op Group. A C2 scramble between FSB border guards, Akhmat fighters, and any MOD forces that could rally ensued in week 1. /8

Russia has experience in creating a combined C2 structure that involves internal security agencies and the military from its experience in the second Chechen war. In the 90s, a joint command was established in what was then the North Caucasus MD HQ. /9
rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1289/RAND_MR1289.pdf

I raise this because Bortnikov and Gerasimov worked with this specific C2 arrangement in Chechnya. While today's situation is much different, they remember how to work together. Implementation is a different matter of course, but I note the experience. /10

I haven't seen a KTO headquarters established yet. Who could lead it? All military district commanders are dual hatted as operational group commanders and their forces are engaged. MOD options could be: Lapin, Kozovlev, Nikiforov, Gerasimov. /11

t's Lapin's AOR, but Op Group North is weak. The territory is Moscow MD, but Kozovlev and many of his forces are in eastern Ukraine. Nikiforov is Ground Forces commander and former op group commander, his name is circulating online. Gerasimov also given the stakes/12

Rosgvardia's tasks will be to set up cordons, roadblocks, and other barriers. FSB border guards in the area have been taken prisoner already, to include conscripts , a very politically sensitive issue for Putin. /13

FSB assets will be doing recon and trying to sweep up AFU teams, and interrogation. Russian forces are already taking small numbers of AFU teams as prisoner. Here I worry about what comes next because the FSB uses horrible torture methods. /14

Russia's MChS (Ministry of Emergency Situations) is also now engaging with evacuations of towns. Russia is showing videos of some armor moving and eventually I would anticipate more helicopter, VKS assets. They will probably use artillery especially if the towns are emptied. /15

This AFU operation has successfully exploited seams of responsibility between the FSB, Rosgvardia and MOD. I suspect targeted leaks will emerge between MOD/GRU and FSB over who is responsible for intel and defense failures. /16

AFU invaded Russia despite 2 years of partial mobilization in Kursk, 10 years of legislation to make power ministries coordinate better, and a 2023 offer from Prigozhin to help guard the border (Shoigu rejected it). Bardak as usual. Now the reaction begins. /17

This war has left Russia's borders weak, the army engaged in Ukraine and not immediately available to defend border regions, and FSB border troops not supported. The Russian system's instinct will be to overcorrect and swing harshly at Kursk. /end

[32-40win]

Tataragami with a study of average age of Russian soldier deaths in the war so far, has increased from 30yrs old to 37;

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1823055160907641126

[32-40win]

Fun little vid of Ukes using robot dogs for recon, etc, seen a few of these around lately, they work pretty well at getting around, and they are apparently small and hard to spot;

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1822611509639365015

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by 32-40win

Fun little vid of Ukes using robot dogs for recon, etc, seen a few of these around lately, they work pretty well at getting around, and they are apparently small and hard to spot;

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1822611509639365015

A robot dog used for warfare was painted bright blue?!? Is spay paint more expensive, and I mean alot more expensive, in Ukraine?

[Talking moose]

Originally Posted by 32-40win

Fun little vid of Ukes using robot dogs for recon, etc, seen a few of these around lately, they work pretty well at getting around, and they are apparently small and hard to spot;

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1822611509639365015

That’s just plain creepy.

[aulrich]

This was one of the scenarios that had me concerned about the possible use of a tactical nuke.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by aulrich

This was one of the scenarios that had me concerned about the possible use of a tactical nuke.

If Putin makes that mistake he’ll have Finns, Swedes, Germans, Poles, etc., etc. coming over every border they have. The Russians can’t handle the war they started with one country little own virtually every other surrounding one. It would not be a good time to own a russian passport.

[Mr Flyguy]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

The vast majority of the world want Ukraine to have a major success here.

Fingers crossed.

Would be interested in your definition* of "major success" and how it would facilitate a measurable end to this madness.

*But unlike many of your previous posts try to keep to 25 words or less 'cause there's fishing to be done!

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Scott h

If Putin makes that mistake he’ll have Finns, Swedes, Germans, Poles, etc., etc. coming over every border they have. The Russians can’t handle the war they started with one country little own virtually every other surrounding one. It would not be a good time to own a russian passport.

So, if Russia launched a nuclear weapon because they were attacked, you think countries such as Finland, Sweden, Poland, etc., who purportedly don't have nukes, would attack Russia? I suspect there would be some hesitation as the correlation it pretty easy to put together, "Ukraine attacked Russia, they got nuked, maybe we should hold back here a little bit"....no?

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Mr Flyguy

Would be interested in your definition* of "major success" and how it would facilitate a measurable end to this madness.

*But unlike many of your previous posts try to keep to 25 words or less 'cause there's fishing to be done!

I know people don’t want to surrender to a tyrant. They know life won’t be better for the losing side. They also know the pain won’t end there.

Give Ukraine all the long range and short range weapons they want with the stipulation only military targets.

Then let them have at it.

Russia can’t complain about countries giving Ukraine weapons to attack Russia.

Russia is accepting weapons from other countries to attack Ukraine.

Simple.