Financial Markets Meltdown

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by 1stLand

you got it.
the amount of equity people have in their homes today (the 50 and under crowd) is pretty insignificant. Too much debt. It's unsustainable.

All that debt is going to make this exponentially worse as many have next to no buffer as things move forward. Probably a lot of layoffs coming in the food and beverage, airlines, cruises as well as the tourism sector.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by 1stLand

you got it.
the amount of equity people have in their homes today (the 50 and under crowd) is pretty insignificant. Too much debt. It's unsustainable.

The amount of debt that people incur these days is beyond me. How do people get themselves in this situation? Is it just living above their means?

[Zip-in-Z]

Feeling like a Yo-Yo but my investments are up today.

D.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by Zip-in-Z

Feeling like a Yo-Yo but my investments are up today.

D.

Mine as well, hopefully the recovery continues. Had a nice increase in some of my insurance stocks today, will probably unload them tomorrow if this continues.

[59whiskers]

Not selling anything. There will be lots of buying opportunity for awhile to average down on some of the past proven performing companies.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by 59whiskers

Not selling anything. There will be lots of buying opportunity for awhile to average down on some of the past proven performing companies.

Agreed. Air Canada is one that will come back like a rock star.

[Zip-in-Z]

I'm thinking of selling enough to buy a new Buick Avenir SUV, the dealerships have lots of inventory and no buyers, should be some hot deals if this market continues to decline.

D.

[59whiskers]

My last four years have been spent on diversification of investments outside of this socialist Canadian government economy. Will only invest in Canadian companies that have additional assets outside of Canada while trying not to buy into any foreign company's that have a high foreign with holding tax. It will be a tough lesson for lots of people that have not lived with in their means going forward. Did not forget what happened in Western Canada 40 years ago.

[Justfishin73]

Futures down a good 500 pts. I see a lot of the gains yesterday being given back.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

Futures down a good 500 pts. I see a lot of the gains yesterday being given back.

The analysts are predicting the DOW to drop 700 today. The roller coaster continues.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

The analysts are predicting the DOW to drop 700 today. The roller coaster continues.

I would not be surprised to see some days ahead with 2000+ point moves in the Dow.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by 59whiskers

Not selling anything. There will be lots of buying opportunity for awhile to average down on some of the past proven performing companies.

Focus n discipline is the long term strategy. Don’t wonder off to unknown territory and get too greedy .lots of good long term (3-5 year) holds with a good dividend will be on sale

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

The analysts are predicting the DOW to drop 700 today. The roller coaster continues.

Don't worry it will start settling down once they have Covid 19 under control

[bsmitty27]

You guys have bigger balls, and understand the market better than me. I simply saw a economic hazard coming, that in no way could i perfect a gain, And possibility of huge losses. So i pulled everything 2 weeks ago. Right or wrong, has yet to be seen. But my stress level is low, that's worth its weight in gold.
Brad

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by bsmitty27

You guys have bigger balls, and understand the market better than me. I simply saw a economic hazard coming, that in no way could i perfect a gain, And possibility of huge losses. So i pulled everything 2 weeks ago. Right or wrong, has yet to be seen. But my stress level is low, that's worth its weight in gold.
Brad

History will probably be kind to you.....

[CDNOutdoorsman]

Originally Posted by fishtank

Focus n discipline is the long term strategy. Don’t wonder off to unknown territory and get too greedy .lots of good long term (3-5 year) holds with a good dividend will be on sale

Do you have any examples of these good long term companies with good dividends? wink wink.

[bdub]

Well that's day six of a 3+ percent point move in the SP500 since the market top. We are batting .500 now. Are we enjoying the ride yet?

VIX SP log ret
14.38 0.47%
15.56 -0.38%
17.08 -1.06%
25.03 -3.41%
27.85 -3.07%
27.56 -0.38%
39.16 -4.52%
40.11 -0.83%
33.42 4.50%
36.82 -2.85%
31.99 4.13%
39.58 -3.45%

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by CDNOutdoorsman

Do you have any examples of these good long term companies with good dividends? wink wink.

how long you planning to hold it for ??

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by bdub

Well that's day six of a 3+ percent point move in the SP500 since the market top. We are batting .500 now. Are we enjoying the ride yet?

VIX SP log ret
14.38 0.47%
15.56 -0.38%
17.08 -1.06%
25.03 -3.41%
27.85 -3.07%
27.56 -0.38%
39.16 -4.52%
40.11 -0.83%
33.42 4.50%
36.82 -2.85%
31.99 4.13%
39.58 -3.45%

So far I would have to say I am. All in, as long as you didn't own airlines, Cruise, travel related type stocks going into this there is some good money to be made. Net, most quality portfolios are still up from where they were in Oct 2019. I am not normally a day trader but given the current volatility there is some very easy money to be made buying and selling short term. When you can pickup 10-15% in a day, which is a rate of return many would be ecstatic with for a full 12 months, how bad can that be. When it settles out there are also some GREAT deals on top notch Blue Chip high Dividend stocks. It is all a matter of perspective.

[Justfishin73]

Be a while yet before I even think of doing anything. Was at bank at lunch moving some money around--bank--"you should invest that money, we can help you"

UM, hell, no

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

Be a while yet before I even think of doing anything. Was at bank at lunch moving some money around--bank--"you should invest that money, we can help you"

UM, hell, no

everytime they try to sell me investment products( gic , mutual ) at the bank, i tell them iam saving up for a share of birkshire hardaway ..

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Dean2

When it settles out there are also some GREAT deals on top notch Blue Chip high Dividend stocks. It is all a matter of perspective.

Yes there sure will be some bargains if this thing continues to go the way I think it may.

The following info isn't directed at you Dean, just random info for perspective.

The math of large losses makes coming back from them increasingly difficult to recover from the further down you go. A 10% loss requires a gain of 11% to get back to even. -30% requires 43%, -50% requires 100%, -60% requires a 150% gain to get back to even.

This is the one point against the long only, buy and hold through thick and thin, 100% stock portfolio that makes me cringe when I think about it.

[smitty9]

Volatility....an option trader's dream.

Sell premium, hedged with a pair trade or a long position, and watch the money roll in.

[CDNOutdoorsman]

Originally Posted by fishtank

how long you planning to hold it for ??

I'm game for anything. Hope to retire in 8ish years...

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by fishtank

everytime they try to sell me investment products( gic , mutual ) at the bank, i tell them iam saving up for a share of birkshire hardaway ..

I went to the bank a few days ago to withdraw some cash, the new teller had to know what I was doing with it. I told her I was buying guns. Shut her right up.

[Twisted Canuck]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

I went to the bank a few days ago to withdraw some cash, the new teller had to know what I was doing with it. I told her I was buying guns. Shut her right up.

Should have told her you were going to Thailand to buy some children. And video record her reaction.

Kinda off topic though.

[KinAlberta]

Originally Posted by bdub

Yes there sure will be some bargains if this thing continues to go the way I think it may.

The following info isn't directed at you Dean, just random info for perspective.

The math of large losses makes coming back from them increasingly difficult to recover from the further down you go. A 10% loss requires a gain of 11% to get back to even. -30% requires 43%, -50% requires 100%, -60% requires a 150% gain to get back to even.

This is the one point against the long only, buy and hold through thick and thin, 100% stock portfolio that makes me cringe when I think about it.

Beware of bubbles. This headline is from 2017. In 2020 it’s still in the low 20s and it’s now 4 decades after the big peak. Imagine the 60 something guy with 100% equities retiring around 1980 thinking that buy and hold works on all markets. Dividends would have been critical.

Nikkei 225: The Japanese stock market's 20-year high is still around 50% below its 1989 peak — Quartz

https://qz.com/1103091/nikkei-225-th...its-1989-peak/




Warren Buffett once pointed out the 17 year period in the 1960s and 70s where the index (price weighted not TR) closed in the 1970s at basically the same level as it was 17 years before in the early 1960s. Buy and holders that look to the index as a measure of their own portfolio performance need to be able to ride out long stretches of seemingly poor years. They should view them as opportunities to add to their portfolio but if they are forced to sell to live, selling low is a major problem.

[Zip-in-Z]

Yo-Yo hit the ground again today, Fridays are normally worst, look out.

D.

[bdub]

Ray Dalio put this out a couple days ago. Those selling protection could get killed he's thinking.

https://heisenbergreport.com/2020/03...ce-against-it/

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by Zip-in-Z

Yo-Yo hit the ground again today, Fridays are normally worst, look out.

D.

Wait till the end of the month, which is also the end of the quarter......

Dow tracking Nikkei, which is down big, should be a bloodbath tomorrow